Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 30, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND
CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL STALL OVER OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRENDS OF CURRENT FORECAST WORKING OUT SO FAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE NC PIEDMONT IN AREA OF BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE. EXPECT ADDTIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WEAK LEE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SHOULD MOVE E-SE INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RELATIVE MIN IN
CAPES EXITS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED THERE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS OVER E
TENNESSEE MAY REACH THE BORDER COUNTIES...SO HIGHER POPS THERE.

MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PRECIP.WATER IN THE 1.75 INCH RANGE...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS A GOOD BET UNDER THUNDERSTORM CORES AND ANY SLOW
MOVING/STATIONARY STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANY
SVR STORMS WOULD LIKELY NEED 50-55 DBZ AROUND 35 KFT.

SOME CONVECTION EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SHOULD DIE OUT BY MIDNIGHT.
ON THU...UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ALONG WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY. FORCING LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WILL CARRY LIKLEY POPS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THU SHOW MARGINAL CAPE AT BEST TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WOULD BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND USED THE LOWER MAV MOS
FOR MAX TEMPS ON THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 PM EDT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AMPLIFIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...
STALLING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL END FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY A SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TN
BORDER WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN JUST A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS THERE DURING THE MORNING...WITH A FEW CLOUD SPILLING
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY AS THE SECOND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LITTLE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT...MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL
WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOIST AIR MASS SATURDAY NIGHT...TO AROUND NORMAL IN
THE DRIER AIR MASS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1 PM EDT...THE GFS AND ECMWF EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
THEIR UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FROM SUNDAY
ON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE GFS HAS LACKED
CONTINUITY...AND IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH DOES NOT DIFFER AS MUCH...AND AS A RESULT...THE HPC SURFACE
SOLUTION IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SC ON SUNDAY.THIS FRONT
BARELY MOVES ON MONDAY... REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NC...AND BY
TUESDAY REACHES THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT
MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH...PLACING OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL WARRANT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA INITIALLY. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AIR MASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...AS THE COOLER AIR MASS NEVER BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED HERE EARLY...AND RETREATS LATE IN THE PACKAGE
WHEN HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES VFR AT EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO
HOLD FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH 06Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IF A
THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER AN AIRFIELD THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
LIKELY. HAVE CARRIED A VCTS AT KHKY/KCLT THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT.
DID CONTINUE TO CARRY CB IN THE THE LATE AFTERNOON CLOUD GROUP AT
THE OTHER TAF SITES AS THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
COVERAGE EVERYWHERE.THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

LATE TONIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MVFR FOG/HZ WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH KAVL WENT TO LIFR IN FOG LAST NIGHT GUIDANCE
IS SHYING AWAY FROM A REPEAT EARLY THU. EXPECT THAT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE NOT TAKEN
VSBY BELOW 3 SM THERE.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THU SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A TRIGGER FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND FORECAST VCTS KAVL AFTER 15Z AND
CB GROUPS MOST OTHER SITES AROUND 17Z.

OUTLOOK...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S OF THE REGION THU NIGHT AND ANY
LINGERING EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVERNIGHT. DRYER AIR WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRI AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. ON
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND PRODUCE A THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GNERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-312000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
357 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LEVELS...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH HUMIDITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

NCZ035-036-056-301800-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-IREDELL-
1256 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER AND SOUTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

AT 1252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF STATESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
9 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOOKOUT
  SHOALS LAKE...TROUTMAN...STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...SCOTTS...
  MOORESVILLE AND CATAWBA.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

NCZ057-301815-
ROWAN-
151 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ROWAN COUNTY THROUGH 215
PM EDT...

AT 148 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEVELAND...OR 12 MILES WEST
OF SALISBURY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHINA GROVE BY 215 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAIN RATES OVER AN INCH IN HALF AN HOUR MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND SUDDEN RISES ON SMALL RIVERS AND
CREEKS. PLEASE DRIVE WITH CAUTION DURING HEAVY RAINFALL.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

NCZ071-301915-
MECKLENBURG-
238 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CORNELIUS...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNC
CHARLOTTE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HUNTERSVILLE BY 250 PM EDT.
  UNC CHARLOTTE BY 315 PM EDT.

BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

GAZ029-302115-
ELBERT-
448 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ELBERT
COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF NUBERG...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
ELBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RUCKERSVILLE BY 510 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LANE