Damaging Wind in Georgia, August 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND STALL
TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT IN UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...FROM THE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG AREA TO THE CHARLOTTE
AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA...THEN SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST ON FRIDAY. CONVECTION
MOVING EAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED ACROSS
OUR AREA WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SPEED SHEAR TO
PRODUCE ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...TAKING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
WITH IT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT
COUNTIES... WHERE THE DECELERATING FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS
COVER. VERY LOW POPS WILL BE LEFT UP IN THAT AREA INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT...AND KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...H5 TROF REMAINS OVER E US FRI NIGHT THRU MON
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE THRU THE UPPER FLOW. EVEN
WITH OCNL WEAK FORCING ALOFT...COOLER HIGH SFC PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE N SAT AND MOISTURE IS SPARSE SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW SWINGS SE TO S DURING DAY SAT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTN...ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDS OVER MTNS.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS S
OF CWA SUN AND MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE BUT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PIEDMONT AND ALONG ESCARPMENT. TEMPS SUN
SHOULD BE NEAR AVG. SFC HIGH REMAINS N WITH LOW S ON MON WITH
MINIMAL MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE
KEEPING DAYTIME POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND TEMPS AROUND AVG.
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W MON NIGHT SO INCREASED CLOUDS AND
BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER MTNS AFT 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST WAS EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE MODEL RUNS. NEITHER
THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF AGREED WITH THEMSELVES NOR EACH OTHER. THE HPC
PREFERRED A COMBINATION OF THE CANADIAN MODEL AND A PORTION OF THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED
UPON THE HPC FORECAST.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF MODERATELY WET WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE CWFA ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS LATE IN
THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAINFALL UNTIL FINALLY PUSHING
EAST ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FRONT IN NC.
CUMULUS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. WITH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...AND NOT AT KCLT UNTIL CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE MORE
APPARENT.

MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING...PERHAPS
FLIRTING WITH THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KAVL. WITH THE FRONT
SLOWING...KCLT WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW VFR CEILING UNTIL MORNING.
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND DEW POINTS
LOWERING BEHIND THE FRONT...VISIBILITY IS EXPECT TO REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED TONIGHT AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES. SCATTERED CUMULUS
AND NORTH WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ059-062>064-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-
081830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
223 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 812 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ003-006>009-012>014-019-081830-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
223 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 814 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>058-065-068-069-501>510-081830-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
223 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

SCZ001-002-005-071930-
GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
252 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCONEE AND WESTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SALEM...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 14 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SALEM BY 310 PM EDT.
  LAKE KEOWEE BY 320 PM EDT.
  NINE TIMES BY 330 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

SCZ007-008-072015-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-
319 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHEROKEE AND EASTERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF COWPENS...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
SPARTANBURG...MOVING EAST AT 13 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THICKETTY
  AND COWPENS.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062-072030-
ELBERT-FRANKLIN-HABERSHAM-HART-MACON-RABUN-STEPHENS-
327 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

AT 327 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
YOUNG HARRIS TO LULA TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF STATHAM...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON TO TOCCOA TO
ELBERTON BY 430 PM THIS AFTERNOON. PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   34.89N 82.98W
08/07/2008                   OCONEE             SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

SCZ005-006-010-072030-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-
339 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN PICKENS...NORTHEASTERN
ANDERSON AND WESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POWDERSVILLE...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 19 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WHITE HORSE ROAD AT I-85 BY 350 PM EDT.
  DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE BY 355 PM EDT.
  DONALDSON CENTER BY 400 PM EDT.
  MAULDIN BY 410 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

SCZ010-072100-
ANDERSON-
409 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELTON...OR 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 17 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLIAMSTON BY 415 PM EDT.
  BELTON BY 420 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HG