Rip Current in Florida, September 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1220 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. BAND OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO ROTATE WEST ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS AND MAY
APPROACH EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

/STRASSBERG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008/

AVIATION...LIGHT OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT BY 13Z-14Z AS RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH AND PRES
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF HURRICANE IKE. ONLY VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN OVER WESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AS AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. THEREFORE, ONLY VCSH MENTIONED FOR EAST
COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT.
KAPF SHOULD SEE A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON, BUT
NOT ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE TO SET OFF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE ATLC HIGH PRES
RIDGE MOVING SW AND ACROSS S FLA AHEAD OF HURRICANE IKE WHICH IS
APPROACHING E CUBA. THIS HIGH PRES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE NE AS IKE MOVES ACROSS CUBA...AS CURRENT NHC TRACK
FORECASTS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE N TIER OF THE U.S.
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE. THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND IKE MOVE NW INTO THE GULF AFTER LEAVING
CUBA. AS IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM S FLA...THE ATLC RIDGE
BEGINS TO NUDGE TO THE W AGAIN.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE...THOUGH THE FORECAST FOR S
FLA FROM NHC BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE OPTIMISTIC...ALL INTERESTS IN S
FLA THOUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. OTHERWISE
.KAMX 88-D DOPPLER RADAR BEGINNING TO DETECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. AS WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM E TO MORE
NE...INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SOME EROSION OF STABLE AIR
OVER S FLA...SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO MOVE FROM THE ATLC ONTO
THE S FLA COAST AND INLAND TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO
-NIGHT. ON MON/MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IN
-CREASE. RAIN BANDS ROTATING ABOUT IKE WILL LEAD TO SQUALLY WEATHER
WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS...AFFECTING MAINLY THE S AND W HALF OF THE S FLA PENIN
-SULA. NO HIGHLIGHTS ON THE HORIZON AT THE MOMENT BUT AS CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...SUSTAINED WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF S FLA MAY TRIGGER
SOME WIND ADVISORIES. ALSO...RIGHT NOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD
EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AS S FLA
HAS NOT TOTALLY DRIED OUT. RIGHT NOW THINKING IS TOWARD URBAN
FLOODING CONDITIONS BUT THIS COULD CHANGE WITH ANY CHANGE IN IKE.
THESE POTENTIAL SITUATIONS WILL BE MONITORED. E AREA MAX/MIN TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMS TODAY/TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS A SHADE COOLER MON
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS/RAIN. MAX/MIN TEMPS W SHOULD BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO THE NE WIND FLOW. GFS USED FOR ALL GUIDANCE AS MODEL
CLOSEST TO NHC IKE TRACK. ZFP PACKAGE DELAYED UNTIL NHC GUIDANCE
RECEIVED AND INGESTED.

EXTENDED FORECAST...TUE THROUGH SAT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THOUGH THE MID TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AS IKE
MOVES WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES FROM THE ATLC
NUDGES WESTWARD.

MARINE...GRADUAL NE WIND INCREASE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS CIRCULATION ABOUT IKE BEGINS TO BE FELT OVER THE S FLA
AREA. WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN THE ATLC WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY EARLY MON MORNING...AND IN
THE GULF WATERS BY MID MORNING MON. IN THE ATLC WATERS AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF WED AND IN
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THU. BEACH CONDITIONS ON THE E COAST WILL
DETERIORATE AS WELL TONIGHT INTO MID WEEK AND ON THE W COAST MON
INTO LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL OF COURSE DEPENDS ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
IKE. CWF PACKAGE DELAYED UNTIL NHC GUIDANCE RECEIVED AND INGESTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  86  80  86 / 20 50 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  87  81  86 / 20 60 50 60
MIAMI            80  87  81  86 / 20 60 50 60
NAPLES           76  94  75  92 / 10 40 40 60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ630-AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ610.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1050 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-080000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1050 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

...ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON HURRICANE IKE...
...RIP CURRENT AND TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS WEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO 12 TO 17 MPH.

WIND: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULFSTREAM WATERS LATER TONIGHT.

WAVES: SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 9 FEET LATER TONIGHT IN THE
GULF STREAM DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS.

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND OVER GULF
COAST BEACHES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IKE MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, WITH GENERALLY MINOR URBAN
FLOODING THE PRIMARY IMPACT.

WIND GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA IN SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET OVER ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND TO 9 FEET OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

MOLLEDA