Wildfire in Florida, May 29 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED
FOR MORNING UPDATES. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS UPPER RIDGING WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH VERY WEAK DEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND VERY
DRY ABOVE 10 TO 15K FEET. IN FACT, PWAT VALUES HAVE NOT CHANGED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AT ONE AND A HALF INCHES WHICH IS QUITE A
BIT BELOW CLIMO LEVELS. SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM TO BE IN ORDER
AND ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AND
THE BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 30/KOB

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHWRS MAY AFFECT ERN TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING ...ESPECIALLY KFXE AND KTMB WITH CEILINGS BRIEFLY
DESCENDING TO 2-3 K FT, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 16Z WITH
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FORMING AS IT MOVES INLAND. VCSH OR VCTS WILL BE
INDICATED FOR KAPF. 47/RHG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008/

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE SE WITH WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE AND SURROUNDING WATERS WITH ASSOCIATED EASTERLY FLOW. TO
THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK TROUGH NE OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND TO THE SOUTH ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANOTHER SUCH FEATURE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN US STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND TX AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS IN CONTROL. ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES CIRA GPS AMSU/SSMI BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCT SHOWS TPW RANGING FROM LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE TO AROUND 1.5 IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND
ABOVE TWO INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MEANS THAT NORTH
OF THE KEYS TPW REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT THE PRESENT TIME ACROSS THE
PENINSULA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. BECAUSE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW ACTIVITY
WILL BE FAVORED ALONG EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AND IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME I DO NOT SEE ANYTHING BETTER THAN A
SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO THE FACT THAT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
BUT ONLY SLOWLY AND THE STRONG UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP
THINGS CAPPED A BIT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE INCREASE IN
MSTR SURGE...VERY MINOR...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOW END SCATTER
POPS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG SE FLORIDA COAST SO WILL LEAVE
CURRENT 30 POPS THERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PARTICULARLY ALONG EAST COAST. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS
WILL LIKELY END UP A TAD WARMER THAN LAST FEW DAYS ALSO. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
ENSEMBLE DATA...CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPR LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA A TAD BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
NORMAL. ALSO...UPR LVL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...IF ANYTHING MOVE RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHICH
MEANS PROSPECTS FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT BEST EXPECT LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA (30%).

THEN AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGEST UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE RESULT BEING MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. OPERATIONAL
GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER NEXT WEEK OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT BEHIND FROM THE CURRENT
SYSTEM AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER AND
QUITE DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS FEATURE. IT JUST KEEPS A WEAK SYSTEM
DOWN ACROSS THE YUCATAN REGION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVELOPS
THE SYSTEM BUT IS ALSO WEAKER. NONE OF THEM DEVELOP THE SYSTEM FOR
THE TIME PERIOD COVERED BY THIS FORECAST (THROUGH WEDNESDAY). SO
YES WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME KIND OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS TWO
LARGE AT THIS TIME TO BE ANY MORE DEFINITIVE ABOUT THIS. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS CIRRUS
BLOWOFF ADVANCES NORTH FROM CONVECTION OVER CUBA.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALL TERMINALS. THIS WILL
ALLOW ISOLD SHOWERS TO MOVE NEAR EAST COAST TERMINALS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND 15Z...WHEN SEA BREEZE SHOULD ADVANCE INLAND CARRYING PRECIP
WITH IT. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM AT KAPF AROUND 18Z
ONCE AGAIN...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY. AFTER A DRY
AFTERNOON ON THE EAST COAST ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL ONCE AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL SHOWER REGIME CONTINUES IN THE EAST
FLOW.

MARINE...WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
AOB 4 FEET THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MINRH VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON COULD TOUCH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (WSW OF LAKE OKE) THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG SO SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LVLS FOR THE
MOST PART.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1214 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-300415-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1207 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2008

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL LEAD TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.
BEACH GOERS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL LIFEGUARDS TO ENSURE
THEIR SAFETY.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.