Wildfire in Florida, May 14 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
531 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH MORE OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE/LONGER LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER WATER...WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 2-4 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND JUST A DEGREE OR SO COOLER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE
NGM/NAM/GFS CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST...WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS BROAD TROUGHING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DESPITE GRADUAL MOISTENING
IN THE LOWER-LEVELS...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BOTH MAXIMUM/MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT A REX BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS AS IF ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO
APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD OFFER LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THAT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED FORECAST OF HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...WHICH IS
WELL ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE MEXMOS GUIDANCE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
BLOCKING WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FLOW TO
SLOWLY BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AND
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL S FLA
TERMINALS. WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE
EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH EAST WINDS FOR KAPF 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE ARE NO MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS RUNNING IN THE 4-6
FOOT RANGE AT MOST...AND SEAS IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS OF 2-4
FEET. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST BY
THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING 10-15 KNOTS. A NORTHEAST SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH THIS SWELL
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 4 FEET IN THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL REDUCE THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG EVENT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH 20 FOOT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION...WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
OTHERWISE...2-3 HOURS OF RH IN THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  70  83  72 / -  -  -  -
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  73  85  75 / -  -  -  -
MIAMI            83  72  85  74 / -  -  -  -
NAPLES           87  66  86  70 / -  -  -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-FLZ066.

AM...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610.

GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
502 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-142100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
452 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW
TIDES IN THE MORNING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

VISIBILITY: SMOKE FROM THE MUCK FIRE ON THE SOUTHWEST SHORE OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM A FIRE IN THE BRIGHTON
SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST GLADES AND
NORTHEAST HENDRY COUNTIES. THE SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND MAINLY AFFECT THE AREAS IN AND NEAR LAKEPORT...MOORE HAVEN AND
CLEWISTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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