Wildfire in Florida, June 1 to 23, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

.UPDATE 2...
THE WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPS TO
FALL TO THE DEW POINTS...AND ALLOW FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND AND FOG TO FORM OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE SMOKE
AND FOG WILL ALLOW FOR THE VISIBILITIES OVER GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES TO FALL BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 78...29...720 AND US 27. SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
SMOKE ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE WEST
METRO AREAS...AS THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END.

&&

BAXTER

.PREV UPDATE... /ISSUED 757 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008/

UPDATE...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER DAY COMING TO AN END AS VIGOROUS
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST REGION IS
DIMINISHING/MOVING OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO DIE OUT AS THE NIGHT WAXES IN, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD
BEGIN TO REGENERATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO FEW CHANGES
NEEDED.

VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW ONE MILE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE VICINITY DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE EVERLASTING MUCK FIRE,
IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE GROUND FOG ENHANCED FROM TODAYS
THUNDERSTORM RAINS. WILL MONITOR REPORTS OF CONDITIONS FROM THE
HIGHWAY PATROL CLOSELY AND ISSUE A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

AVIATION...THE WINDS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AFTER 14Z. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT
APF TAF SITE WERE THEY SHOULD SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SETS UP.

THE SHOWERS AROUND APF TAF SITE EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 01Z AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT. SO HAVE KEPT VCSH
UNTIL 01Z FOR KAPF TAF SITE AND THEN MADE THE WX DRY.

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...THE WX SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6Z
BEFORE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WORKS WEST INTO THE EAST COAST AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. SO HAVE
KEPT NO WX THROUGH 6Z AND THEN ADD VCSH FOR MOST OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES AFTER 6Z. THE VIS AND CEILINGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008/

DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HONESTLY INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL. BUT MORE ON THAT LATER. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OUR DOMINATING WX REGIME LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE IF NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
EASTERLY FLOW IS NOW UP THROUGH THE 25H LEVEL WHICH ILLUSTRATES
RIDGE AXIS BOTH AT THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVELS STRETCHES ACROSS
CENT FLA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON S FLA ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO NOT A LOT OF
CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM FCST. A SHORT WAVE IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. ALL OF THIS AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AS A RESULT 50 METER HT FALLS ARE
FCST BY EARLY MONDAY ACROSS S FLA. THIS WILL LESSEN THE DEPTH OF
THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING IT ONLY UP THROUGH
15K FT BY 12Z MONDAY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THE E CST MIGHT
STILL BE FAVORED FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING SHRA ACTIVITY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TSRA CONCENTRATED INTERIOR/W CST ZONES BUT THEN BY
MONDAY STORM MOTION BECOMES 5KT OR LESS AND TSRA COULD EASILY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE E CST METRO ZONES. THUS, WILL ADJUST GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY AND GO LESS THAN MAV GUIDANCE FOR E CST SUNDAY BUT
THEN PRETTY MUCH GO WITH IT FOR MONDAY. LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOW END OF SCT ALTHOUGH COULD BE
BUMPED UPWARDS A TAD FOR MONDAY WITH LATER FCSTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES AND ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH ABOVE SCENARIO.

IN THE EXTENDED, STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS S FLA TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE MID LATITUDES
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WHICH
EVENTUALLY CAUSES IT TO RETREAT ACROSS MEXICO AND ALLOWING FOR
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BUILD PUTTING S FLA IN A MORE FAVORABLE REGION FOR
RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HAVE NOW CLEARED PBI AND THE FLL AREA AND SHOULD DO SO FOR THE
MIA...OPF...AND TMB SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEA
BREEZE CONTINUES TO PENETRATE INLAND WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING
BEHIND IT. IN THE MEANTIME, ANY SHOWERS THAT AFFECT MIA...OPF...OR
TMB COULD RESULT IN VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THEN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF TSRA FOR
THE KAPF AREA AS A GULF SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE KAPF AREA IF A
THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE AIRPORT...BUT DUE TO TIME/LOCATION
UNCERTAINTIES...KEPT ONLY VCTS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME AS NO
ACTIVITY HAS YET DEVELOPED. OVERNIGHT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL RETURN ACROSS THE EAST SITES WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IF ANY.

MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS AT 4 FT OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  88  76  88 / 20 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  88  77  86 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI            78  89  77  88 / 20 20 20 30
NAPLES           73  91  73  91 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-011200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
749 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES TONIGHT...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

VISIBILITY: SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ALONG WESTERN LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW WEST INTO HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES IN THE SMOKE COULD FALL BELOW ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG HIGHWAY 78...29...720 AND US 27 IN GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES. DRIVERS NEED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS WHILE DRIVING IN THE SMOKE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE. THE BEST TIME
FOR THE RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT WILL BE DURING LOW TIDE WHICH IS
BETWEEN 1130 PM EDT AND 130 AM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MIX OF SMOKE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS EACH NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE ANY RAINFALL
IS WELCOME, LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD EACH DAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER