Flash Flood in Florida, July 16, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

.UPDATE...ANOTHER WET FORECAST TODAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT MAINLY
FOR THE LAKE AREA DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

A DEVELOPING UPPER LVL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF
TAMPA. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN DEEP MOISTURE INTO S FL WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW TSRA WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE AND
INTO THE NAPLES AND FORT MYERS AREAS. DUE TO TRAINING OF POSSIBLY
HEAVY STORMS, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE NAPLES AREA, SOME MINOR
FLOODING MAY OCCUR TODAY. ANOTHER COMPLICATION FROM THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS COMES HIGH TEMPS... LOWERED GLADES, HENDRY, AND COLLIER
COUNTIES DOWN INTO THE LOW 80 SINCE TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 NOW AND RAIN IS ALREADY MOVING IN.

OTHERWISE ALONG THE EAST COAST, RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
EAST COAST METROS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS REMAIN
UNCHANGED. /TINGLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008/

AVIATION...EXPECTING AGAIN NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS
TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. CONTINUED TO DEPICT VCTS AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL ASSESS TRENDS TO SEE IF TIMING/LOCATION CAN BE
MORE PINNED DOWN TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE THIS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL WILL PRODUCE BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
BE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT KAPF...AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. /DG

CURRENTLY LOCAL DATA PLOT AND BUOYS INDICATE SURFACE LOW PRES SW OF
TPA IN THE E GULF OF MEX. LOW SITUATED ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND
-ING FROM THE ALTC OFF OF THE COAST OF THE SE U.S. ACROSS CENTRAL
FLA. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER S FLA AND 88-D MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDI
-CATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SE
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEX OFF OF THE W CENTRAL/SW FLA COASTLINE.

DISCUSSION...MODELS SIMILAR BUT GFS INITIALIZED SURFACE LOW
POSITION BETTER AND WILL LEAN THAT WAY. SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD S FLA TODAY THEN BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT
INTO THU AS HIGH PRES TO THE SE OF S FLA BEGINS TO NUDGE NW TOWARD S
FLA. HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER S FLA THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THEN MOVE OVER THE SE U.S. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER S FLA TODAY. SATL WATER
VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE DIVING SE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
SURFACE LOW OFF OF W CENTRAL FLA. COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOIST
-URE CONVERGENCE AND THE INCREASED INSTABILITY ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE W HALF OF S FLA TODAY WITH NUMEROUS E
HALF. WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE TONIGHT INTO
THU...POPS DECREASE FROM E TO W TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. TODAY
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WITH LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS THOUGH
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR AS WELL IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
POPS A LITTLE LOWER TONIGHT BUT CONCENTRATED IN THE W. POPS LOWER
AGAIN THU/THU NIGHT BUT SIMILAR PATTERN WITH HIGHEST POPS W 1/2 OF
AREA. MAX TEMPS AGAIN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION BUT WARMEST
ALONG E COAST. SOME WARMING THU WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS/RAIN.

EXTENDED PERIOD...FRI THROUGH TUE...A DEEP EASTERLY DRIER WIND FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH LOWER POPS. A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY E COAST AND DIURNAL INTERIOR AND W THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...WINDS SW NEAR 15 KNOTS AS SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD IN
THE GULF BUT SEAS AROUND 4 FEET OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER S FLA THROUGH THU WITH HIGH RH AND AMPLE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  74  88  78 / 80 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  75  88  80 / 70 30 30 20
MIAMI            86  75  88  79 / 70 30 30 20
NAPLES           82  74  89  76 / 90 40 50 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-170400-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
845 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY GULF COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 45 MPH.

WIND: HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TODAY
WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A WATERSPOUT
COULD MOVE ONSHORE THE GULF COAST TODAY.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST INCLUDING THE NAPLES AREA. SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN STREET FLOODING AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES
OF COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH MOST
OF THE STORMS AFFECTING THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA THE
END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER
AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

DG