Damaging Wind in Florida, July 14, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHWEST
GULF COAST IN DEEP AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ALL THE WAY ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS FOR TODAY.
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AS
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
FAIRLY RAPID MOTION OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE
MAJOR FLOOD PROBLEMS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW.

MOLLEDA

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008/

AVIATION...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED WITH SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. RIGHT NOW ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE
GULF COAST...BUT EXPECT THIS TO MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR FOR KAPF THIS MORNING AND ALL
EAST COAST SITES 16-20Z IN ANTICIPATION OF SCT/NUM TSRA DEVELOPING.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...ANY TSRA THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS A
TERMINAL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT VERY
BRIEFLY...AND BECAUSE TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS IS UNKNOWN...STAYED
WITH MVFR ONLY. /DG

&&

DISCUSSION...LONG WAVE 50H TROUGH FULLY ESTABLISHED FROM E CANADA S
OVER THE E 1/3 OF THE U.S. AND INTO THE ATLC OFF OF FLA...THEN CURV
-ING SW OVER S FLA INTO THE S GULF OF MEX. PATTERN PERSISTS INTO TUE
AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TROUGH
SHEARS APART WED INTO THU AS 50H HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC BEGINS
TO PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE FLA PENINSULA AND UPPER LOW OVER E CANADA
FILLS AND LIFTS NE. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS
AND OVER FLA FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SW WIND FLOW ALOFT TO
15 KFT TODAY AND TUE WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE PERSISTING. SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT AND SOME DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POPS TODAY
AND TUE. EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER. WARMER MAX
TEMP WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER CONVECTION THAN ON SUNDAY ALLOWING OUT
-FLOWS AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SATL LOOPS INDICATED
SOMEWHAT LESS CLOUDS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MAIN THREAT AGAIN WILL
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SUN...AS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 50H
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE W AS ATLC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WIND FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. THIS WILL
CONCENTRATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE N PORTION OF THE CWA. A SE WIND
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DRIES WITH POPS HIGHER INTERIOR AND W DUE TO THE WIND
FLOW. TREND CONTINUES OF TROPICAL WAVE REMAINING IN CARIB AND PASS
-ING S OF S FLA AROUND FRI. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&
.MARINE...SW WINDS TODAY AND TUE 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY WED AND THEN
BECOME SE THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
WIND SPEED OR SEAS.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  73  88  74 / 80 30 70 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  76  88  77 / 80 30 70 30
MIAMI            88  75  88  76 / 80 30 70 30
NAPLES           85  76  86  76 / 70 40 50 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
853 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-150400-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
853 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL
BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

FLOODING: ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER
IN POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
WILL BE MOST COMMON, BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE THREAT FOR NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LESS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT
BEING OVER THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN REGION ON TUESDAY AND THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER
AND ANY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

DG