Flood in Florida, February 24 to 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD IN OVER THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR NW IS BEGINNING
TO APPROACH NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR TO
OUR N AS EXPECTED...BUT IT IS A BIT SURPRISING HOW FAR TO THE S THE
CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS. STILL...EXPECT THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE DRIER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE...SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE
...WITH A LIGHT SEA BREEZE FORMING NEAR THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM...OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...
GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE FROM THE WELL IN THE INTERIOR
TO AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT IN THE CROSS CITY
AREA...HOWEVER...WHERE THE LOW CLOUD DECK FORMED EARLY ENOUGH TO CAP
LOWS AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...THE PROTECTING SFC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE SE COASTLINE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN
TO SET UP OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALSO...OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WX MAKER WHICH IS
NOW TAKING SHAPE AS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE ROCKIES...WILL
EMERGE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN ON ITS WAY TOWARDS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND BY LATE ON TUESDAY. THANKFULLY...THIS SYSTEM SHOWS
NOW SIGNS OF OCCLUDING AND SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWING DOWN UNTIL WELL
AFTER ITS COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS TO LIKELY NO
MORE THAN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE THE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA.
ALSO...THE DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL SFC
BASED CAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXTREMELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS. GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL
SHOWING NEARLY IDENTICAL AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS ACROSS
THE CONUS. TUESDAY NIGHT SEES LONGWAVE RIDGING IN CONTROL OF THE
WEST WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOWS PHASED INTO A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SURFACE PATTERN IS ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ALL SHOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL
PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL THAT HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. ASSUMING
THE PATTERN DOES NOT SLOW DOWN FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
ENDING TUESDAY EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR RAPIDLY ADVECTING IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. QUITE A SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO
MAKE A RUN AT THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0C ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST AND MINUS 2-4C FROM KDHN TO KABY FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY (< 20% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE). NEEDLESS
TO SAY TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY
TO BE QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...AND THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD
LINGER IN THURSDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SLOW TO RECOVER. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE COOL...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY AND
TRANQUIL INTO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS
WELL WITH THE SHARP EASTERN TROUGH EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY LEAVING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO RE-DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. COLDEST TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...AND A COLD AND DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COMBINE TO CREATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE SHORTER NIGHTS THAN EARLIER IN THE WINTER
SEASON...FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS MAY BE LOOKING AT MIDDLE 20S TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY.
LATEST 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FROM KTLH TO KABY AND KVLD IS SHOWING UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE 40S WEIGHING INTO
THESE NUMBERS.

SMALL DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND WASHING OUT TO THE NORTH. THE
GFS IS BIASED TOWARD FASTER FRONTAL PROGRESS IN THE FAR EXTENDED
FORECAST AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. EVEN STILL
THE GFS FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IF IT WERE TO VERIFY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE RETURNING BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ACTUALLY COME BACK TO ANOTHER CONSENSUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
SHOWING RIDGING OVER THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING SHARP TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE WEST TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN THE FAR EXTENDED INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE SOME
TIME TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH DHN SEEING SOME SCT CLOUDINESS
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...REMNANT SFC MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
RAINFALL EVENT AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AREAS OF
MVFR FOG EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PFN.

&&

.MARINE...THE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
PERSIST FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24-36 HRS...BEFORE INCREASING QUICKLY TO
SCEC THEN SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE ARCTIC
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE W.

&&

.FIRE WX...ALTHOUGH RHS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 35
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  40  75  51  68  36 /   0   0  20  70  20
PANAMA CITY  49  69  61  69  37 /   0   0  20  70  20
DOTHAN       40  73  54  61  33 /   0   0  40  70  10
ALBANY       39  72  54  62  33 /   0   0  30  70  10
VALDOSTA     42  74  51  67  36 /   0   0  10  70  20
CROSS CITY   45  76  53  72  40 /   0   0  10  70  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...RED FLAG THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR BAY...GULF...AND FRANKLIN
     COUNTIES.

GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
AVIATION/FIRE WX...DUVAL/WOODRUM
LONG TERM...MROCZKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
544 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLOOD            6 E QUITMAN             30.79N 83.46W
02/24/2008                   BROOKS             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            8 CAMPERS REQUESTED EMERGENCY EVACUATION AT BLUE SPRINGS
            LANE.1 PORTABLE SHELTER WASHED AWAY.

&&

FOURNIER