Hail in Florida, February 12, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
157 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...

.REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SUB-TROPICAL FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN GOMEX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE A POTENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BY EARLY WED
MORNING EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI AND OUT INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT SITUATED
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
BY SUNRISE.

PRESENTLY...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE PENINSULA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN
THE SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD. THE RISK OF THUNDER WILL INCREASE
AS WELL.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND FAVORABLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR UP THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN EXPECTED TO BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH PROGGED HELICITY VALUES 300-400 J/KG LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND COINCIDE WITH THE NORTHWARD LIFTING
WARM FRONT. FEEL CRITICAL TIME FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST
BETWEEN 01Z-08Z TONIGHT WHEN DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR FORMATION WILL
BE AT ITS HEIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LINEAR SQUALL LINE. EXPECT
THE LARGE SQUALL LINE TO REACH THE WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE NEAR
13/06Z AND CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD REACHING OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES
FROM AROUND 09Z-12Z. BESIDES ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL OTHER
THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...HAIL AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO AID STRONG
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST INHIBITOR TO STRONG CONVECTION
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

**REFER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPDATES ARE ISSUED ON THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX THREAT.**

WEDNESDAY...PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD DISTURBANCE
WILL BE OFFSHORE AND EXPECT SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO BE
APPROACHING. UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW THAT SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
HAVE ENHANCED LIFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY STILL SUPPORT
SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTIVE BAND MAY BECOME ORIENTED
WITH THE MEAN FLOW FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...SO THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
REPEATED CELLS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TOO IN THE SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THU...COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
AND NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER
AIR. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY ON THU AS WINDS SWING
ONSHORE. AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SINK TOWARDS CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SAT AS BACK DOOR FRONT SETTLES DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND STALLS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH FRI AND ACROSS
THE AREA SAT. TEMPS LOOK WARM WITH READINGS RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUN-TUE...GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON TAIL END OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE STRONG ON THIS
RUN. MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING FOR A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE AND
THE LATEST RUN SHOWS THAT IT FAVORS A SUNDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS PRECEDING IT.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SWEEP IN MON AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CIGS 3-4K FT AND SCT SHRA DVLPNG SOUTH THIS
AFTN WILL SPRD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BY DUSK WITH INCREASING SHRA AND EMBEDDED
IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG/SVR TSRA OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...WIDESPREAD HVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLD
TORNADOES ALSO IN PLAY. A LARGE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BY EARLY WED MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON POST FRONTAL.

&&

.MARINE...REST OF AFTN/TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM. A LARGE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE THE COASTAL WATERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY WED. STRONG TO SVR STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR THIS ADVANCING SYSTEM.

WED...STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WED
NIGHT AND EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER
ALSO LOOKS POOR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.

THU-SAT...THE GFS SHOWS WINDS VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND EAST ON THU
WHILE DIMINISHING. THIS VEERING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUING TO REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.

SUN...WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GOOD WETTING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SHARP DRY DOWN
THAT WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT/THU. RH VALUES ARE PROGGED BELOW 30
PERCENT FOR THE NORTH INTERIOR THU AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT HOIST A
WATCH YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  74  42  64 / 100  60  10   0
MCO  63  74  44  69 / 100  60  10   0
MLB  72  79  45  67 / 100  70  10   0
VRB  71  80  47  70 / 100  70  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER/SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1033 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-122200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1033 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKING MORE PROMISING TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN STORMS...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WHILE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ROTATING STORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SWEEP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL T V AND RADIO
STATIONS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS TODAY TONIGHT AS THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

BEFORE GOING TO BED MAKE SURE TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALERT
FUNCTION SO THAT IT CAN BE TRIGGERED SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS BE ISSUED THAT ARE SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE STRONG AND PERSISTENT STORMS. PONDING OF WATER WILL
PRESENT A HAZARD FOR FAST MOVING VEHICLES. MAKE SURE TO REDUCE
SPEED AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON WET ROADS.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
NUMEROUS STORMS MOVING FROM THE MAINLAND TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A HIGH THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS. AREAS FROM SAINT LUCIE INLET NORTHWARD OVER THE
SPACE COAST AND VOLUSIA COUNTY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
STRONG MARINE GUSTS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT
FOR STRONG MARINE STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE TREASURE COAST DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITHIN STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WATERSPOUTS IN THE NEAR SHORE MARINE AREA AS
WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. A FEW ROTATING STORMS LATE
TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRESENT A NAVIGATION
HAZARD...ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON THURSDAY MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE A THREAT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
N W S MELBOURNE SPOTTER GROUPS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED DURING THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING.

PENDERGRAST/SEDLOCK