Flooding in Florida, August 20 to 27, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
940 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR EAST COUNTIES HAS ALREADY
EXPIRED. RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA WERE SHOWING THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION OF FAY AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL AND A VERY SLOW MOTION TO
THE NORTH.

THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF FAY. MOST ASOS STATIONS WERE
REPORTING CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET...ALONG WITH AN
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOTS RANGE.

GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL STREAMING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
ASSOCIATED WITH FAYS OUTER RAINBANDS. CURRENT GRADIENT OF POPS
FROM 70 INLAND TO 60S AND 50S THROUGH THE COASTLINE LOOK GOOD AND SO
DOES THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...THEREFORE...NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING FAY MOVING BACK WEST
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINAL SITES THE REST OF TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
TROPICAL STORM FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST PRODUCES AREAS OF
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREAS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS STILL REPORTED AT SEVERAL
COASTAL LOCATIONS...42036 SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19
KNOTS...AND MODELS INSISTING IN KEEPING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER
MUCH OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WILL GO AHEAD
AND EXTEND THE SCEC UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR ALL WATERS. THE FORECAST
AFTER TONIGHT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TROPICAL STORM FAYS
EVENTUAL TRACK FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS STILL YET TO BE
DETERMINED. STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO LOW RH CONCERNS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY UNTIL 10 PM EDT
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING THE
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
532 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-202145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
532 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY...A
RESULT OF TROPICAL STORMS FAY LOCATED OVER AND OFF THE EAST COAST.
THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROPICAL STORM FAY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

RKR