Hail in Colorado, May 6, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
507 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENTLY...TAIL END HI CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MCS STILL
LINGERS OVER FAR SE CO AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK DRY LINE LIKE
FEATURE NOTED FROM ABOUT LHX ON EASTWARDS...AS DWPTS E OF THIS LINE
ARE IN THE M/U 40S WHILE TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE DWPTS IN THE 30S.

TODAY...MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR S WILL AFFECT AREAS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE SOME WEAK FORCING OVER THE
REGION AND WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD FORCE A FEW TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA. ATTM...IT APPEARS CONVECTIONS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED
AS BUFFKIT DATA SHOWS DWPTS MIXING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS FOR SVR...I BELIEVE RISK IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN GRIDDED
DATABASE...BUT WILL MENTION A FEW STRONG STORMS IN HWO PRODUCT LATER
THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE OUT
EAST...BUT GIVEN THE V SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ANY AREA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY ADVANCING S ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SCTD POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. LATER TONIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF MSTR WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA AFTER THE WEAK BOUNDARY GOES BY. THIS MSTR...COMBINED WITH WEAK
FORCING STILL OVER THE REGION...I DECIDED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
GOING OVER THE PLAINS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE AMOUNT OF
IMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE ON CWFA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN IMPACT NEXT UPPER SYSTEM/FRONT WILL
HAVE ON CWFA FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODELS PROJECT THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT 12Z WEDNESDAY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS DEPICTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY 00Z THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 18Z THURSDAY.

HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CWFA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
SECTIONS. THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TRACK OF CLOSED UPPER
LOW...EXPECT NOMINAL HIGHER MOUNTAIN ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.

ZONAL UPPER ZONAL FLOW FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW
CWFA TO EXPERIENCE MILD TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED
POPS. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM/SURFACE FRONT TO IMPACT REGION FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING POPS AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER/MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS UPPER RIDGING/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE CWFA
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALLOWING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FINALLY...ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

DONT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER KCOS OR
KPUB THIS MORNING. AS FOR THUNDER...WE WILL SEE GENERALLY ISOLD COVG
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE 2 TAF SITES. BELIEVE CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW
FOR ACTUAL TS AT THE 2 AIRPORTS...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS IN THE
TAF PRODUCTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE FCSTD
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. MAY HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO CONTEND
WITH AT THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE...BUT PROB APPEARS TOO LOW TO
MENTION FOR NOW. KALS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24H WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1231 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008

COZ058>089-093>099-071845-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1231 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS ON
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG AND PRODUCE WINDS
OF 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.  IF BETTER MOISTURE
GETS INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO...THEN ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

ALL OF THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHTNING...HAIL GENERALLY UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
DIAMETER...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES...IS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY...AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.