Lightning Strike in Colorado, August 6, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

...FLASH FLOODING MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR PIKES PEAK
REGION...UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF LAKE CHAFFEE COUNTY...AND
CONCERN AREA HAS SPREAD SOUTHWARD NOW INTO THE WET MOUNTAINS AND
FREMONT COUNTY...

FRONTAL POSITION AS OF 20Z APPEARS TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN KCOS AND
KPUB...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR KLIC...THEN EASTWARD TO NEAR
KGLD. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.  NORTH OF THE FRONT
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 50S WITH LOWER 60 DEW POINTS ADVECTING
EASTWARD INTO NE CO. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV PICS ACROSS
CENTRAL UT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE INTO NW CO DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.  PRECIP WATERS IN 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
WERE RUNNING FROM 200% OF NORMAL AT GJT TO AROUND 125% OF NORMAL AND
KDEN...SO AIR MASS ACROSS WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
EXCEEDINGLY MOIST.

MODELS PROJECT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DVD...AS WELL AS ALONG SFC
TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM KTAD TO KLAA.  WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THIS WILL HELP LIMIT EVENING CAPES ACROSS THE SE
PART OF THE FCST AREA (GENERALLY BELOW 1000J/KG)...THUS NOT LOOKING
FOR AS MUCH STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER THIS EVENING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...NORTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EL
PASO...PUEBLO...FREMONT COUNTIES...CAPES COULD INCREASE TO OVER 1000
J/KG.  MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS LIGHT
WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOS RESULTING IN SLOW TSTORM MOVEMENT.  AS
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING...EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH LOW LVL THETA E RIDGE INTERSECTING THE
MOUNTAINS FROM PIKES PEAK DOWN THROUGH FREMONT/CUSTER COUNTIES.  12Z
MODEL RUNS KEPT THIS AXIS AND ITS COINCIDENT HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS MAINLY TELLER/EL PASO THROUGH NE CO...BUT 18Z NAM HAS NOW
SPREAD THIS PCPN AXIS FARTHER SOUTH AND GIVEN FRONT IS NOW ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EL PASO CO...CANT ARGUE WITH THIS POSSIBLE SOLN.
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY (OVER 3
INCHES IN ONE HOUR NEAR BLACK FOREST)...SEVERAL REPORTS OVER AN INCH
NEAR BUENA VISTA...WITH UP TO AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WETS/WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY SO SOILS ARE ALREADY WET TO SATURATED IN
SOME AREAS.  THUS WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AND WILL
EXPAND IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF FREMONT COUNTY THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY GIVEN LATEST 18Z RUN AND RADAR
TRENDS.  THIS MAY BE A LATER SHOW THAN WE HAD YESTERDAY...SO HAVE
THE WATCH GOING THROUGH 06Z...BUT THIS EVENT COULD END UP LASTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT IF NAM IS CORRECT.  FOR NOW WILL LET WATCH EXPIRE
AT 06Z...AND LET EVENING SHIFT EXTEND AS NECESSARY.  HUNCH IS PCPN
MAY BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE IN NATURE AFTER
06Z.

MODELS SEEM TO AGREE IN KEEPING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTORMS
GOING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE
MTS/PLAINS AS FRONT DROPS INTO NE NM BY EARLY THURS MORNING.  LATEST
GUIDANCE IS TANTALIZINGLY COOL ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY
IN THE 70S ADVERTISED BY MET COMPARED TO MAVS WARMER LOWER TO MID
80S.  ALL WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING/SFC HEATING WE GET DURING
THE DAY.  HAVE GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
MAINLY UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS AND
WRN VALLEYS.  IF NAM IS CORRECT...PLAINS COULD END UP BEING TOO
COOL/CAPPED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REGENERATE DURING THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KLHX.  HOWEVER SHORTWAVE IN WRN CO WILL STILL BE MEANDERING
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH NRN CO...AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.  SO WITH AT LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION.  MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS.  GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTIES WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE CALL.  -KT

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

...TWO MORE DAYS OF GREATER THAN CLIMO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...

MODELS PROJECT A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR FAIRLY GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY...AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND
THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MONSOONAL AIRMASS.
FOR FRIDAY...BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES TO REFLECT
CONTINUED COOL...MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO RAISE POPS AND LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIODS.

UPPER RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A WARMER
AND DRIER AIRMASS TO REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DROP OFF.  HOWEVER...THERE
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A MONSOONAL FLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND
FRIDAY NIGHT.  WARMER TEMPERATURES AND FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
THE FORECAST. LW

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KCOS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN CO BY 12Z WED. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG WITH MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE
FLOW.  THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND SFC
HEATING MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING.  HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT THOUGH SOME
SMALL HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>063-
076>085.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
314 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2008

COZ058>089-093>099-072115-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
314 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2008

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS EL
PASO...TELLER...FREMONT...LAKE...AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES ALONG WITH
THE WET MOUNTAINS AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY...AND IN AREAS WITH SUSCEPTIBLE SOILS
SUCH AS OLD BURN SCARS AND STEEP CANYONS WITH LOOSE ROCK SUCH AS
CHALK CREEK. THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY...EL PASO
COUNTY...FREMONT COUNTY...LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES AND THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY.

OTHER THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL UP TO
1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER. ONE OR TWO STORMS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WHICH DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT COULD BECOME
INTENSE PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHER THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS BEING
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

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