Flash Flooding and Hail in Arkansas, March 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT IN OKLAHOMA HAS STARTED TO GAIN
MOMENTUM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...
WITH SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

STORMS WILL START OUT AS DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A
SQUALL LINE EVOLVING AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT. TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST IN THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WITH WIND/HAIL THREAT AS WELL. AS THE SQUALL LINE
EVOLVES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT...AND PRIMARILY
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

ONE TO THREE INCH RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. IT/S NOT GOING TO TAKE MUCH RAIN TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...AND WITH THE RIDICULOUSLY HIGH AMOUNTS
WE/VE HAD OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATELY...WILL CONTINUE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR A LITTLE THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH IT PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY MID DAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTING BY THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...
THEN WILL START TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND NEARLY STALLS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREAS...WITH SOME TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...AND WE MAY END UP ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH YET AGAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY IN THE NORTH...AND
CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  63  42  56 /  90  20  10  40
CAMDEN AR         60  66  50  67 /  90  30  10  20
HARRISON AR       44  59  38  51 /  80  10  10  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  68  48  60 /  90  20  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  56  64  47  60 /  90  30  10  30
MONTICELLO AR     61  71  51  65 /  90  30  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      54  66  47  59 /  90  20  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  61  38  53 /  90  10  10  40
NEWPORT AR        52  64  42  56 /  90  30  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     59  65  49  64 /  90  30  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  66  43  58 /  90  20  10  40
SEARCY AR         55  65  47  60 /  90  30  10  30
STUTTGART AR      57  64  47  61 /  90  30  10  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-
CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS...MAINLY IN
EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS INCLUDES THE BLACK RIVER...THE LOWER WHITE
RIVER AND THE CACHE RIVER.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST. WITH THE GROUND STILL SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. AS SUCH...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME TURNING OF WIND WITH
HEIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE AREA UNDER MOST
CONCERN WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG THE BLACK AND
CACHE RIVERS...AND THE LOWER REACHES OF THE WHITE RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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