Flooding in Arkansas, April 9 to 12, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
653 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE NIGHT.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ON SOUTHEAST FLOW. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE NORM DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. STORMS
WILL BEGIN IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND INCREASE FROM THERE.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP SO THAT
MVFR TO IFR CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM MEMPHIS...INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
BACK INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH DURING THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE MORE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN SHOW WILL GET GOING OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE AN MCS DEVELOP OVER
OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IN FACT WILL BE THE
MAJOR QUESTION IN THE FORECAST...AS THIS MCS MAY TAKE THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND ENERGY AWAY FROM THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR AND DYNAMICS WITH
THE SYSTEM...THINK THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS. IF ANY STORM DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND REMAINS ISOLATED...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT LONG LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING IN RELATION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE...HOWEVER...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE STILL IN QUESTION. DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAST
BUT WILL NOT LINGER. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE
TO SATURATED GROUND...BUT QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SOME.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
PRECIPITATION DECREASING THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LEFT AROUND...AND THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WILL
STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
EARLY THIS PERIOD...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  76  56  64 /  70  90  70  20
CAMDEN AR         69  80  59  71 /  40  80  70  30
HARRISON AR       57  73  50  60 /  90  90  40  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  78  57  70 /  60  80  50  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  78  59  70 /  60  80  70  20
MONTICELLO AR     69  81  61  71 /  40  70  80  40
MOUNT IDA AR      65  76  55  70 /  70  80  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  74  52  61 /  80  90  40  20
NEWPORT AR        63  76  59  65 /  70  90  80  20
PINE BLUFF AR     68  79  60  71 /  50  80  90  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  75  53  65 /  80  90  40  10
SEARCY AR         64  76  58  68 /  60  90  80  20
STUTTGART AR      66  78  61  70 /  50  80  90  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

AVIATION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1255 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1255 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

...A DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE BLACK RIVER...THE LOWER WHITE RIVER...THE CACHE
AND OUACHITA RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...AS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS FORMS...THEN MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA. ANY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE EXCESSIVE.

ALSO...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR WEST OF A LINE FROM HARRISON...TO
HOT SPRINGS...TO CAMDEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY.

DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A POWERFUL MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND
FIELD...WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-LIVED...SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH
THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED IN MOST AREAS...IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT
OF RAIN TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ALSO AFFECT RIVER FLOODING CONDITIIONS.

RESIDENTS ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOOD SAFETY RULES.  ALSO...PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/HTML/SVR0408.HTM

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