Blizzard in Alaska, March 3, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON MAR 3 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN OKAY AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS.
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND 00Z THU. GFS
INITIALIZED BEST OF THE LOT.

.EASTERN DOMAIN...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL KICK OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA EXITS EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES
OVER KODIAK ISLAND TODAY THEN STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND
THE CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING. A SECOND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH TUE EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL CHANNELED AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH THROUGH PORTAGE
VALLEY ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE. CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.WESTERN DOMAIN...
A 964 MB LOW 45 NM WEST OF NIKOLSKI WILL WEAKEN TO 977 MB 60 NM NORTH
OF SAINT PAUL MON EVENING THEN DISSIPATE 60 NM WEST OF HOOPER BAY TUE
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH BOTH THE PRIBILOFS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD TODAY. BLIZ CONDITIONS AT SAINT PAUL AND SAINT GEORGE WILL
IMPROVE TOWARD NOON AS DAYTIME TEMPS CREEP ABOVE FREEZING AND WINDS
SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. MODERATE RAIN AT COLD BAY AND SAND POINT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY THEN TAPER OFF TOWARD EVENING.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND. A 979 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN TO
985 MB 150 NM SOUTH OF ATKA TUE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

.OUTLOOK...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS HOLDS AS WELL. PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO
DEVELOPS NEW LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACKING THEM NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA OR KODIAK ISLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 195
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 172 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAR 08