Blizzard in Alaska, February 8, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
430 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION OF THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. FRONTAL POSITION WAS ALSO VERY
GOOD FOR THE NAM AND GFS. THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE EAST.
AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GULF THE TWO EUROPEAN MODELS PUSH IT
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHILE THE NAM AND GFS
ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING THE TRACK. NO REASON TO THINK
THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE AND THE INITIALIZATIONS WERE BETTER ON THE
GFS AND NAM SO THOSE ARE THE MODELS BEING USED FOR THIS LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE JET STREAM AT 250 MB REMAINS ZONAL
COMING OUT OF ASIA BETWEEN 30N AND 40N AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 160W.

IT THEN WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND BENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BEFORE HEADING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR PERSISTS. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND IS BLOCKING THE LOWS FROM MOVING
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. ONCE THE LOWS LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE JET STREAM AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD THEY CANNOT PUSH INTO THE
RIDGE. THIS IS THE CASE WITH THE LARGE LOW SOUTH OF ATTU THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL ONLY MOVE ABOUT 200 MILES BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE KEEPS IT FROM MOVING NORTHWARD AND THE JET
STREAM DEVELOPS A NEW LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LOW ON
SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES IT TOWARD THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS A LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF.
THIS LOW IS BRINGING SOME SNOW AND WIND INTO KODIAK TODAY AND THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS
THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MOVING INTO KODIAK. WITHOUT ANY RADAR OR
OBSERVATIONS OF VISIBILITIES OR PRECIPITATION BETWEEN KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT VISIBILITIES ON
KODIAK. MODEL DATA SHOWS THE GREATEST AREAS OF LIFTING AND
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND AND THE
FORECAST INDICATES THAT. HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON KODIAK
AND THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED BY PERSONS THERE OR WHO WISH
TO TRAVEL THERE OVER THE NEXT DAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AGAIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR AWHILE.
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 138 155 176.
         STORM 132 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120-150 160 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08