Blizzard in Alaska, February 11, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON FEB 11 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GFS HAS A LOT BETTER HANDLE ON THE WEATHER THIS MORNING THAN IT DID
YESTERDAY...OR THAN THE NAM DOES TODAY.  ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
WITH REGARD TO LOW PLACEMENT...HOWEVER THE NAM WAS SLOW ON BRINGING
THE FRONT ONSHORE WHILE THE GFS TIMING WAS RIGHT ON TARGET.  IN THE
MIDTERM THE GFS SOLUTIONS SEEMS TO BE MOVING TOWARD AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER MODEL RUNS...THEREFORE THE 00Z GFS WAS THE MODEL CHOICE OF
THE DAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WITH TWO WEAK SURFACE LOWS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF KODIAK WHILE THE
SECOND IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THE SOUTHERLY FLOR WILL BRING THE FIRST LOW ONSHORE
NEAR SEWARD.  THIS WILL ROTATE EASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING OVERRUNNING TO THE MAINLAND TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...OVER RUNNING IS BRINGING SNOW TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION THIS MORNING.  COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL IMPROVE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. IN
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATSU VALLEY THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TONIGHT WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS.  TUESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER...HOWEVER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  THE
POSITIONING AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THAT TIME.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CONTINUE TODAY AS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.  BY
TUESDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY CAUSING
SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THAT ZONE.  ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE BERING AS USUAL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
NEXT BIG SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE A WEATHER MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.  STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND OR SNOW TO THE COASTAL AREAS WHILE INLAND REGIONS WILL
SEE GUSTY WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING. THE BIG QUESTION THAT STILL REMAINS
IS HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL THE
WINDS ERODE THE COLD DOME OVER ANCHORAGE.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEMS
TO BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE BERING SO THIS WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131
MARINE...GALES 120 155 170 172
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 140 141 165 185 352 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF FEB 08