Blizzard in Alaska, December 9 to 10, 2008

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
135 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. MOST DIFFERENCES RESULT
IN TIMING SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHARPNESS OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND TROUGHING.

GFS IS MOST CONSISTENT SO WILL HEDGE TOWARD THIS MODEL. THE LOW IS
DEVELOPING OFF THE YK DELTA AND WILL MOVE TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
BY THIS EVENING AND THEN TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY WED AFTERNOON.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST COMBINED
WITH VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA IS CREATING
SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR IN
MANY YEARS. MANY ZONES HAVE MET HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS
HAVE EVEN BEEN FOUND IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL.

STRONG TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING IN BERING STRAIT WILL BE NEARLY STACKED THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR
OVER THE WEST COAST.

BY EARLY THU MORNING...NEXT DEEP LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN BERING SEA
SUPPLYING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARMER AIR WITH IT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND THE LOW IN THE
BERING...ANOTHER WIND EVENT IN STORE FOR THE WEST COAST THU AND
FRI BUT NOWHERE NEAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ222-AKZ223.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ218-
AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF DEC 08