Drought in Alabama, August 5 to 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A REHASH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED...WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. HEAT
INDICIES WILL BE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. WHILE BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOSE OUTDOORS WILL WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TODAY...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD...LOCATED 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT
ARTHUR...TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS
FOR WEATHER OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF US
80/I-85. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
ZONE IN RELATION TO TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO RETROGRADE AWAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BE HIGHER AND
INCREASE THE HEAT INDICES BACK TO THE 100 TO 107 RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE UPPER 90S. WITH THIS INCREASE IN OVERALL
MOISTURE...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

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.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND AN END TO THE HEAT. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS STILL ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS BREAKDOWN AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

GFS/ECMWF EXHIBITING FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LATEST RUNS. SOME
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION AS THE LATEST
ECMWF TRIES TO REBUILD THE RIDGE...ALBEIT WEAKER...TOWARD THE TAIL
END OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL TAKE A MIX WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE GFS SOLUTION.

THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ADD ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM 30-50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN SOMETIME FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR BETTER
RESOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES BEFORE BUMPING POPS HIGHER.
ADDITIONALLY...THESE IMPULSES WILL INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING...WILL
NOT MENTION QUITE YET IN THE HWO. BUT THIS IS A PERIOD TO PAY
ATTENTION TOO IN LATER FORECAST.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS MAINLY NEAR 70.

75/LINHARES

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A STRATUS DECK AT TOI AROUND 1000 FEET WILL DISSIPATE BY 15Z. WILL
MAINLY SEE SCT CEILINGS HERE...BUT MAY SEE BRIEF IFR CEILING THROUGH
13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

16/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-061130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

75