Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, May 24, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE STG
SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...AND THE THREAT OF SVR
TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG.

A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CONVECTION OVER C/NC WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER THE FA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE RAPIDLY. EXPECT STG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. MIXING THROUGH
800 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. THE WARM
TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS RISING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL RESULT
IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND LIS
-2 TO -4. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO C/NC WI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD
REACH EASTERN WI BY EARLY EVG. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SSW FLOW INCREASING
TO 45-60 KTS IN 850-700 MB LAYER AND AN INVERTED-V PROFILE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...ANTICIPATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVG HOURS...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PACIFIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

GENERALLY WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY...AND TRENDED TOWARD THE MILDER MET
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...AND THE MILDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE LITTLE MOISTURE. MOSTLY DRY
AND COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WITH FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. IT SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT MOVES THROUGH BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WILL FORM TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WI DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE PREVALENT WITH THE TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. STG SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSK/RDM
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-251645-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR TWO...CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THEY WILL BE SEVERE...SO BE SURE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-251645-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THEY MIGHT BE SEVERE.

TSK/RDM
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY
ECKBERG/TE
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
200 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

WIZ005-010-018-019-030-035-036-045-250100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MARATHON-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUSHARA-
INCLUDING EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...WAUSAU...
WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT AND WAUTOMA
200 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

...GUSTY WINDS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY WORK OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 6 PM...WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
PASSAGE.  BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY.  LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP.

WIZ011>013-020>022-031-037>040-048>050-073-074-250100-
FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN
OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-SHAWANO-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
INCLUDING CRANDON...CRIVITZ...STURGEON BAY...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...
ALGOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON AND TWO RIVERS
200 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

...GUSTY WINDS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER 4 PM.  WIND GUSTS WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE WERE
ALREADY AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE LINE PASSES OVER
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE
DURING PASSAGE AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP.

TDH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND GST     MARSHFIELD              44.66N 90.16W
05/24/2007  M43 MPH          WOOD               WI   ASOS

&&