Lightning Strike in Washington, July 13, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG
THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
LOWLANDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE CASCADES WITH
SOME ISOLATED STRIKES IN THE LOWLAND. THIS IS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN SATURDAY. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO CONTINUE IN THE CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY
BUT END AROUND NOON IN THE LOWLANDS. MEANWHILE ONSHORE FLOW BROUGHT
LOW LEVEL MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
APPEAR TO BE COVERED BY STRATUS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
BY NOON OR SO FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
PATTERN TOMORROW WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 BOTH DAYS. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MON STILL LOOKS DRY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE AROUND 130W. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN FAVORS A
TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST BUT CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS A DIGGING TROUGH
COULD RESULT IN A CUT OFF LOW OFFSHORE. THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT DEVELOPING MOIST SLY FLOW ON TUE BUT WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE ADDING PRECIP.  BY WED...THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH APPEARS HEADED MAINLY INTO OREGON/N
CA.  THE GFS STILL WANTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE N INTO THE AREA BUT THIS
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED DRY AT THIS POINT
BUT A BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCE POP MAY NEEDED IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A LAYER OF STRATUS COVERS MOST OF THE WRN WA LOWLANDS
THIS MORNING WITH ITS BASE FROM 1000 TO 1500 FT. SO WE HAVE
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH SPOTTY IFR AND EVEN SOME VFR WHERE
THE STRATUS IS ONLY SCATTERED. THE STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
DURING THE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
18Z-20Z. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS WELL. AT 8 AM
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND MOVING
NORTH. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES...AND THE MINOR WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN WA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MAKES ITS
WAY NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL COASTAL STRATUS PUSHES
WEAKLY INLAND LATE TONIGHT.

WIND AT KSEA WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST 4-8 KT. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1. RED FLAG WARNING FOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES
656 THRU 659 AND 662.
2. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE