A strong cold front approaching the region from the north and west triggered thunderstorms during the afternoon of May 16th. Some storms became severe in northern Virginia, with strong winds downing trees and power lines.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A strong cold front approaching the region from the north and west triggered thunderstorms during the afternoon of May 16th. Some storms became severe in northern Virginia, with strong winds downing trees and power lines.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 1:40 PM EST, 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 240 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT INTO GARRETT COUNTY WILL MOVE E OF THE APLCHNS THIS AFTN...REACHING CHES BAY THIS EVE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... SVR TSTM WATCH 278 IN EFFECT. 18Z SNDG IN SYSTEM. CD FNT MOVG FORWARD ON SCHEDULE. BEST CHC OF SVR WX IS DAMAGING WINDS. SVR CHC WL BE ENDING THIS EVE. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT...XPCTG WINDS TO DIMINISH ARND MDNGT. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR...MORE SLOWLY ON THE UPSLOPE SIDE OF THE APLCNS. COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO ARKANSAS. AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST INTO THE ATLC AND BECOME STATIONARY AS DEVELOPING SFC LOW RACES NORTH ALONG IT. AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA THU EVENING WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA FRI NIGHT. GFS AND NAM BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH GFS H5 LOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT AFTERNOON WHILE NAM DRIVES CLOSED LOW TO THE VA/NC COAST. AS A RESULT...NAM SFC LOW OFF THE NJ COAST SAT AFTERNOON AND GFS LOW OF SIMILAR INTENSITY OVER NORTHERN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. I HAVE SAME CONCERNS AS HPC THAT IF SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY EARLY AND IS ABLE TO SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW...THE SUBTROPICAL INTERACTION COULD BE MAXIMIZED AND ALLOW THE VORTEX TO DEEPEN AND REMAIN CUT OFF FARTHER S AND LONGER...POSING A GREATER THREAT TO THE ERN SEABOARD. THUS WILL FAVOR SOLN CLOSER TO NAM. WILL INTRODUCE CHC SHOWERS THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED PVA MAX ROTATES THROUGH CWA AND CONTINUE THREAT ON FRI. USED A TONED DOWN VERSION OF HIER GMOS POP VALUES. A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN OF PCPN FRI NIGHT AS IT DEPENDS ON POSITION OF LOW...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC FOR REGION WITH HIGHEST VALUES NORTHEAST. UNCERTAIN OF LOW POSITION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING AROUND SYSTEM AND PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLC REGION SUN AFTERNOON. PCPN LOOK MINIMAL. KEPT HPC GUIDE INDICATING SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND EAST. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLIDE OFF ATLC COAST BY MIDWEEK. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TSTMS BIGGEST PROB IN THE FCST AREA THRU 01Z. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND IT...ALTHO NOT PROBLEMATIC BEHIND FNT. VFR WX EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THEN FOR THE RMDR OF EVE HRS IN PRES SURGE BEHIND CD FNTL PASSAGE. WINDS DYING DOWN AFTR MDNGT. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDSPEEDS AND EXACT DIRECTION OF NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TRACK AND SPEED OF SYSTEM. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>537. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1116 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502- VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-171100- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN- ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- 1116 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1234 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ036>042-050>057- 162245- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE- MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF... ST MARYS CITY...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER... MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG 1234 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 ...POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON... TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM. IT IS POSSIBLE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 139 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 MDZ004-005-161815- CARROLL MD-FREDERICK MD- 139 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CARROLL AND FREDERICK COUNTIES... AT 139 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIBERTYTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF WESTMINSTER...MANCHESTER AND HAMPSTEAD WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT. MANNING
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0232 PM TSTM WND DMG FREELAND 39.70N 76.68W
05/16/2007 BALTIMORE MD COUNTY OFFICIAL
TREE DOWN ON TRAILER ON SPOOKS FILL ROAD
&&
RDHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0235 PM TSTM WND DMG NORRISVILLE 39.70N 76.54W
05/16/2007 HARFORD MD COUNTY OFFICIAL
TREES DOWN
&&
RDHSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 321 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 VAZ041-161945- FAUQUIER VA- 321 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FAUQUIER COUNTY... AT 321 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TURNBULL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF BEALETON AND WARRENTON WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT. MANNING
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 330 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 DCZ001-MDZ005>007-009>011-013-014-016-VAZ041-050>055-162030- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-CARROLL MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-HOWARD MD- MONTGOMERY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-PRINCE GEORGES MD-ORANGE VA-STAFFORD VA- CULPEPER VA-FAUQUIER VA-HARFORD MD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-CHARLES MD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-FAIRFAX VA- 330 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE BALTIMORE WASHINGTON METRO CORRIDOR... AT 330 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING LING OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN BALTIMORE TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN SUBURBS THROUGH 4 PM... REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AROUND 4:30 PM...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN SUBURBS TOWARD 5 PM. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT. HTS
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:37 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported trees and power lines down in Opal, VA.
Law Enforcement reported a tree down in the City of Fairfax.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 27244, 27245.