Heavy rains of 1 to 3 inches from a late winter storm resulted in minor flooding along the Dan River at South Boston.
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The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
Heavy rains of 1 to 3 inches from a late winter storm resulted in minor flooding along the Dan River at South Boston.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 8:46 AM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 946 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AIDED BY DEEP NW FLOW UNDER 5H UPPER TROF. S/W CURRENTLY ROTATING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF FUELING ENHANCED -SNSH WESTERN SLOPES WHERE PLAN TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY DOWN TO THE BLF VCNTY GIVEN CURRENT RATES. WILL ALSO PROLONG THE ADVISORY OUT THRU THIS EVENING GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING AND STEEP LAPSES. APPEARS SOME HIGHER RIDGES COULD EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA BUT SINCE ISOLATED AND IFFY GIVEN MID MARCH/WARM GROUND WILL ONLY UP TOTALS ON WEST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...PLAN TO KEEP FORECAST ABOUT STATUS QUO AS FAR AS POPS GO WITH -SHSN/-SHRA BANDS POSSIBLY SNEAKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY UNDER VORT THIS AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH THE UPSLOPE AREAS STRUGGLING TO BREAK FREEZING WHILE MAINLY 30S BLUE RIDGE WEST AND 40S OUT EAST AS DOWNSLOPE FINALLY ALLOWS SOME SUN TO BREAK THRU. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IFFY GIVEN CLOUDS...WEAK PRES RISES AND 35-40 85H JET. HOWEVER THINK WITH STEEPER LAPSES WILL SEE BETTER OVERTURNING ALLOWING HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION ESPCLY SW WHERE WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY OUT THRU 4 PM. && .HYDROLOGY... MAINSTEM RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE DAN RIVER FOR MINOR FLOODING PRIMARILY AT SOUTH BOSTON...AND ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING AT BROOKNEAL AND RANDOLPH. THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE CRESTING ON SUNDAY. LEVELS MAY ALSO BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE MIDDLE JAMES RIVER AT BREMO BLUFF LATER SUNDAY AS WELL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007/ UPDATE...AVIATION AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL AT BLF AND LWB WITH NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SKIES BEGIN BREAKING AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP. ROA/LYH/DAN WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH THRU THE DAY...DIMINISHING TNGT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN WAKE OF FRIDAYS SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT. MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A FEW FLUFFY INCHES ARE LIKELY IN WESTERN GREENBRIER AND SO SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THERE. LAPSE RATES INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE SO RATES MAY BE ENHANCED FOR A WHILE LATER TODAY. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE EVENING BY THE DAY SHIFT. NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE WIND ADVISORY AS PRESSURE RISES AND LOW LEVEL JET APPEAR TO BE A BIT WEAK FOR ADVISORY WINDS. HOWEVER WILL LET IT GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SOME ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE CUT BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME TO NOON FROM 4PM. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING RAIN INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH RAIN STRUGGLING TO GET PAST THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT STALLING THE FRONT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER TN/KY AND SPREAD THEM INTO THIS AREA TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A WET PERIOD FOR SOME AREAS INTO MIDWEEK BUT STILL A WAYS OUT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 136 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007/ UPDATE...AVIATION. AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... MVFR CEILINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES EXPECTED AT BLF AND LWB. AN ISOLATED LIFR PERIOD IS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF ROA...LYH AND DAN. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES MAY SPILL INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE WEST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW DEEPENING OFF THE MD COAST. WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS EXITED THE EASTERN CWA. THE GRIDDED DATA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THIS TIMING. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY MORNING WESTERN GREENBRIER TO ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY...ESPECIALLY WITH BULK OF THE ACCUMULATION BEFORE 6PM SATURDAY. HYDROLOGY... NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED LISTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... LAST OF THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT OF OUR REGION...WITH COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR...AND AS LOW AS LIFR CONTINUE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE...WEST. AS THE NW FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WV MTNS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA/NW NC WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES OF NW NC/FAR SW VA OVERNIGHT...CREATING SOME TURBULENCE. AS FOR THE TERMINALS...BLF/LWB WILL NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL MIDDAY/AFTERNOON SAT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BLACKSBURG COUNTY WARNING AREA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. COLDER AIR SPILLING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY ALLOWING MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME NORTH AND WEST...BUT WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES AT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WILL ALLOW THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACKSBURG AREA TO EXPIRE NATURALLY AT 400 PM EDT. DESPITE WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ONLY ISOLATED MINOR WATER PROBLEMS NOTED NEAR SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS DUE MAINLY TO THE FACT THAT RAINFALL RATES WERE NEVER EXCESSIVE...GROUND CONDITIONS STARTED DRY...AND WATER LEVELS INITIALLY WERE BELOW NORMAL. WITH SHORTER-TERM FLOOD THREAT NOW ENDING...WILL ALLOW EXISTING FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 400 PM EDT...AND TRANSITION TO LONGER TERM MAIN STEM MINOR RIVER FLOODING AS CONTRIBUTION OF RUNOFF FROM UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES IS FINALLY REALIZED OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE ALL STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION END BEFORE 24Z ACROSS THE WEST...AND BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE EAST...TO BE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WINDS BACK INTO DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INCREASING UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TYPICAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORMALLY FAVORED AREAS...MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INTENSIFYING EXITING SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR LOW-END WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM GRAYSON COUNTY VIRGINIA SOUTHWEST INTO MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING WELL INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. GFS MOS GENERALLY ACCEPTED FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL HALF-INCH AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN GREENBRIER VALLEY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY...MOSTLY CLEAR...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SOME ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA NEAR RICHLANDS. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION...HELPING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST REGION. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE AREA...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RESULT IN THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND RELATIVELY INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER CAP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PRIMARILY WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE BEING ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SAME FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTER PORTION OF THE CONUS. AVIATION /20Z-18Z/... WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROANOKE...LYNCHBURG...DANVILLE) WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY/AROUND 0300 UTC THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OF AREA AND AS SURFACE WINDS BACK MORE INTO A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT TO SEE RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 0600 UTC AS SKIES CLEAR AND AS MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE AREA. FURTHER WEST AT BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN TRANSITION FROM CURRENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG...TO MORE OF A PATCHY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY REGIME WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS (ALONG WITH LOCALIZED NEAR-RIDGE TOP OBSCURATIONS). UPSLOPING WINDS AND MOISTURE NOT LIKELY TO ABATE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING...SO THREAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042-043-045. && SHORT TERM...JH HYDROLOGY...JH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1043 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 NCZ003>005-019-020-VAZ007-009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047- WVZ044-181445- SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES- WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH- ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST- HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-MONROE- 1043 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-181445- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-GRAYSON- 1043 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. NCZ006-VAZ058-059-181445- CASWELL-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- 1043 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. WVZ042-043-045-181445- MERCER-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER- 1043 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED BUT SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE REQUESTED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused the Dan River at South Boston to rise above the 19 foot flood stage at 10 am on the 17th. The river crested at 20.49 feet at 8 PM on the 18th and fell below flood stage later in the evening on the 18th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, March 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 20261.