A strong cold front moving east across the Ohio Valley stalled as it moved over the Mid Atlantic. This allowed numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop from the Central Foothills into northern Virginia during the afternoon of July 16th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A strong cold front moving east across the Ohio Valley stalled as it moved over the Mid Atlantic. This allowed numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop from the Central Foothills into northern Virginia during the afternoon of July 16th. Many of these storms became severe, producing damaging winds that downed large trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 9:44 AM EST, 3 hours 36 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1044 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY. SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FCST IN GOOD SHAPE ALTHOUGH LOWER POPS A BIT BASED ON SLIGHTLY LOWER DWPTS AS FRONT HAS SAG SWD INTO LWR SRN MD AND WRF-ARW SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY WHICH ONLY SHOWS WIDELY SCT CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS STILL A RISK OF SVR WITH ANY STORMS GIVEN MARGINAL SHEAR BUT ANY SVR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. PREVIOUS AFD.... FCST AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIFERY OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE GTLKS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA FROM NE-SW EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS IS A VERY SHALLOW BOUNDARY AND WILL READILY MIX NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...REFORMING NEAR THE MASON DIXON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES XPCTD TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST OF WHICH OVER MN/IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE IN OUR AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. XPCT INITIATION OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS 16-17Z TIMEFRAME WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AND ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD REACHING THE METROPOLITAN AREAS AFTER 20Z. 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SUGGESTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SOME ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL PULSE SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WERE MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A LINEAR CONVECTIVE EVENT...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MULTI-CELL AND POSSIBLY SHORT LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. A FEW SVR STORMS A GOOD BET AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... CONVECTION DECAYS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT MAY LAST UNTIL THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME AND WILL HOLD ONTO EVENING POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS STILL WARM TOMORROW NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ENDS UP BEING THIS AFTERNOON... PATCHY FOG A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW XPCT THIS TO REMAIN MORE ISOLD IN NATURE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BROKEN RECORD FOR THE MIDDLE TERM OF THE FORECAST WITH LOW TO MID 90S AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY TUE THRU WED NIGHT. WITH THE REGION SITTING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH BY TO OUR N BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE EVENTS EACH DAY WITH THE WORST OF THE STORMS. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO SIG TRIGGER EVIDENT TO SPARK A WIDESPREAD SEVERE OUTBREAK. FURTHER OUT...THE 18Z GFS HAD A CUTOFF DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE NEW 00Z GFS HAS A WEAKER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST. YESTERDAY IT HAD WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF THROUGH TEN DAYS. WITH SUCH INSTAB IN THE MODEL. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME UNTIL THERE IS A CHANCE TO LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLES/EURO/AND VARIOUS COMPETING MODELS TO SEE WHERE CONSENSUS WILL TAKE US. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDS XPCTD TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...XPCT TSRA TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...SOMEWHAT MORE COVERAGE TODAY EXPECTED THAN WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. METRO AREA AIRPORTS MAY SEE TSRA IN THE TERMINAL AREA AFTER 20Z...LIKELY COMING TO AND END IN THE 01-03Z TIMEFRAME. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING. && .MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...DRM NEAR TERM...ROSA SHORT TERM...DRM LONG TERM...CAS AVIATION...DRM MARINE...DRM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1047 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007 ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502- VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-171045- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN- ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- 1047 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY TUESDAY THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 127 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007 VAZ026-037>039-161800- GREENE VA-MADISON VA-ALBEMARLE VA-ROCKINGHAM VA- 127 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT GREENE...MADISON...ALBEMARLE AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES... AT 127 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF ROCKY BAR...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF STANARDSVILLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. RWW
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:20 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Albemarle County Fire and Rescue Department reported trees and power lines down southeast of Earlysville and trees down in Monticello. Trees and power lines were also downed near Route 20 and Profitt Road in Stony Point.
Fire Department Officials reported trees down on a house within the City of Charlottesville.
Loudoun County Fire and Rescue Department reported trees down and blocking roads in Lovettsville, VA.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 47566, 47569, 47567.