A warming trend started on the 12th, with daytime temperatures in the 40s, that eventually moderated into the 50s by the 14th and 15th. In addition, a quarter to half inch of rain fell along a stationary boundary on the 14th and 15th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A warming trend started on the 12th, with daytime temperatures in the 40s, that eventually moderated into the 50s by the 14th and 15th. In addition, a quarter to half inch of rain fell along a stationary boundary on the 14th and 15th. The end result was a substantial snow melt that increased surface water runoff into area streams and rivers. These increases caused water levels to rise, which subsequently lifted and moved river ice and created localized ice jams and flooding. |Ice jam along a bridge/culvert on the First Branch of the White River in Chelsea (Orange county) caused mainly basement flooding of 10 residents and 3 commercial buildings. Another ice jam formed along the Mad River near the USGS gage site in Moretown (Washington county) and flooded Route 100B for several hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 2:13 AM EST, 4 hours 47 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 313 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS VERMONT. UNTIL THEN...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE SNOWMELT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT NEAR ZERO CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FEEL BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH AND THUS HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 400 PM AS SNOWMELT...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIPITATION WILL ALL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IN AND AROUND SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT AND NOTICEABLE DRYING SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS ON FLOOD CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...SCENARIO OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD WITH SURFACE LOW NOW TRACKING A BIT FURTHER WEST. THIS WOULD FAVOR VERMONT AND POINTS EAST FOR STEADIER SNOWS AND GOING FORECAST OF SNOW LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS GOOD. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. && .AVIATION... FRNT MAKING SLOW TRANSITION THRU CWA THIS MORNING. COND WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR W/ LOW CEILINGS BLW OVC010 AT TIMES. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH RAIN AND SLOWLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS CD AIR WORKS INTO AREA. SW...VAR WINDS WILL MV OUT OF THE N/NE BY 10Z-12Z. TRANSITION TO A MIX THEN ALL -SW/--SW WILL BE IN 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME. AFT 16Z-18Z FRNT MVS SOUTH OF AREA...LOW CLD REMAINS W/ VFR/MVFR COND...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE N/NE 5-10KTS. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD. && .HYDROLOGY... WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH UNTIL AT LEAST 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST...ANOTHER TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL TODAY...AND SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS. POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS WILL ALSO EXIST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028>031-034-035. && SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...JN HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 513 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007 NYZ028>031-034-035-VTZ002>012-016>019-160915- EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN- WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS- ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON- WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN- EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- 513 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY FALLING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS A RESULT DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL CAUSING ICE JAMS. ONE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE WINOOSKI RIVER IN MONPELIER. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THIS CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR OVER THE AREA...WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPDATED INFORMATION AND FORECASTS. RIVER CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ICE JAMS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. NYZ026-027-087-VTZ001-160915- NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE- GRAND ISLE- 513 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THIS CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR OVER THE AREA...WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPDATED INFORMATION AND FORECASTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An ice jam formed along the Mad River near the USGS gage site in Moretown and flooded Route 100B for several hours.
Ice jam along a bridge/culvert on the First Branch of the White River in Chelsea caused mainly basement flooding of 10 residents and 3 commercial buildings.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Vermont in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Vermont, March 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 19194, 19193.