Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, May 20, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN PLACE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB DEW POINTS NEAR 13C AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F AT 12Z.

AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT 500MB
WESTERLY WINDS OF 30KTS ON THE WHITE SANDS PROFILER AND A 50KT
SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAVORED LOCATIONS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WE HAVE MADE MENTION OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATEST HWO BUT HAVE KEPT A MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
UNSETTLED WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM BAJA LOW
GETS PUSHED EAST BY NEXT NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC LOW. THERE WILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH SOME INCREASING SHEAR EAST
OF THE DRYLINE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
SEE SWODY2 FOR DETAILS.

BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LARGE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN
SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE
TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS APPEAR TO PASS NORTH. CAP MAY HOLD
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH UPPER SYSTEM SO FAR NORTH BUT BEST CHANCE
OF CAP BREAKING WOULD BE  NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION IN HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH MAIN PUSH FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF STORMS CAN FIRE IN
THIS AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIGRATE
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPER...STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS
WILL HAPPEN SO LEFT POPS ALONE TUESDAY.

WENT WITH A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE PER ETA/ECMWF/NOGAPS WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY GIVING IT A GOOD PUSH INTO THE AREA. CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ARGUE FOR SLIGHT STORM
POPS.

CONTINUED POPS THURSDAY WITH THE AIR MASS RECOVERING QUICKLY
THURSDAY WITH SOME OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE WITH
BACKING FLOW ALOFT.

ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE GENERAL UPPER
TROUGHINESS PROGGED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WITH LEE TROUGH
FORMING. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER.

GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MEXMOS HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH WET GROUND AND DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              62  79  62  88  /  20  20  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                59  87  59  89  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  84  66  89  /  30  20  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  83  64  91  /  20  30  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  81  59  82  /  30  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   60  81  61  87  /  20  30  10  10
MARFA TX                   51  82  52  82  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  81  62  89  /  20  20  30  10
ODESSA TX                  61  81  62  90  /  20  30  30  10
WINK TX                    64  89  64  96  /  20  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
238 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007 /138 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH FLOODING AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DRYLINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A HOBBS NEW MEXICO
TO MARATHON TEXAS LINE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...LOCAL INTERESTS
SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION THROUGH
THE EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

TXZ074-202200-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
426 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
DAVIS. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF DIMES ARE LIKELY.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.