Flash Flooding in Texas, May 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
438 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME MOVING TOWARD THE PANHANDLES. STILL THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST
TEXAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS BUT
LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR
THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY AND
AHEAD OF THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLY LINGERING AND PREVENTING FULL HEATING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING INTO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE DRYLINE. DO NOT
EXPECT MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT FEEL THAT STORMS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME BREAKING THE
CAP. IF STORMS DO FORM THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME
SEVERE.

GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT STILL DO NOT PUT MUCH FAITH IN THIS SOLUTION. GFS
ENSEMBLES FALL INTO TWO CATEGORIES WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING. HALF OF THE ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE ECMWF IN NOT BRINGING
A FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY. IN FACT THE ECMWF DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH AT ALL AND INSTEAD APPEARS TO INDICATE A TROUGH
OR PACIFIC FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. HAVE ELECTED TO STICK TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF DELAYING FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY.
GIVEN THIS REASONING...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY PROVIDED COLD FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS.

UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS LIFTING NORTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

KIMBLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  79  54  86  56 /  50  10   0   5  10
BEAVER OK                  52  77  59  82  57 /  30  10   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              51  78  50  82  49 /  40   0   0   5  10
BORGER TX                  58  80  58  88  60 /  50  10   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              54  84  55  89  53 /  50  10   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  52  81  53  87  54 /  50  10   0   5  10
CLARENDON TX               57  75  56  86  62 /  60  20   0   5  10
DALHART TX                 52  79  49  85  48 /  40   5   0   5  10
GUYMON OK                  52  79  54  84  56 /  40   5   0   5  10
HEREFORD TX                52  82  54  88  52 /  50  10   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  76  59  82  61 /  40  10   0   5  10
PAMPA TX                   56  77  58  85  61 /  50  10   0   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                57  75  61  85  62 /  60  20   0   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              58  75  62  87  64 /  70  30   0   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

13/15

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
250 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
250 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A
FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GOEHRING