Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, March 10, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
347 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE. NAM IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS/EURO AND UKMET. SO CONFIDENCE INCREASED GREATLY
CONCERNING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...WV IMAGERY
SHOWS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER WAVE WITH ITS AXIS GENERALLY ALONG
THE ROCKIES. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES AN 85KT TO 95KT UPPER LEVEL JET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL AID IN PUSHING THE LOW INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...AND ALLOW THE LOW TO CUT
OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THE SURFACE...DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS MOISTURE ADVECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
LL FLOW IS IN PLACE FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE
DEW POINTS NEAR 50 DEGREES BY 04Z TONIGHT IF PATTERN CONTINUES. FRONT
IS STILL APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE NW ZONES JUST BEFORE 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES
AND A SHEAR PROFILE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
PROFILE SUGGESTS THE STORMS WOULD BE GENERALLY HIGH BASED...BUT WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLE DOWNBURST
WINDS. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE
FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLES FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH SEEM LIKELY
AS DEEPEST MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. SINCE THERE
WAS GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HEAVY PRECIP LOCATION AND
TIMING...DECIDED TO UP POPS INTO THE 80 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE AND LEFT
A SIMILAR PRECIP BULLSEYE OVER THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR HYDROLOGY BASED ON MODEL QPF AS BOTH NAM AND
GFS SHOW OVER 3 INCHES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON
SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION AS LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ACROSS LUBBOCKS CWA AND
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS UP
TO 12Z TUESDAY...THEN WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7. NW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW KICKS OUT TO THE EAST.
MODELS HINTING AT PRECIP CHANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALSO...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
LAST FEW RUNS...SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
PACKAGE...TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NW WHERE RECENT OBS SHOW
THIS AREA TO BE COOLER THAN THE MAV SUGGESTS. WHICH LEADS TO AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOT THINKING THE AIR WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

JJB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  56  41  64  44 /  80  70  40  40  30
BEAVER OK                  45  56  42  69  43 /  80  80  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              34  54  35  67  36 /  40  20  10  20  10
BORGER TX                  46  58  46  67  46 /  80  70  40  40  30
BOYS RANCH TX              45  59  42  65  40 /  50  40  40  40  20
CANYON TX                  46  57  42  65  40 /  70  70  40  40  30
CLARENDON TX               48  58  46  62  47 /  80  80  40  40  30
DALHART TX                 36  56  36  67  36 /  40  30  30  30  10
GUYMON OK                  44  58  42  67  42 /  70  60  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                45  56  42  66  38 /  50  40  40  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                48  57  45  66  47 /  80  90  40  30  20
PAMPA TX                   46  56  45  62  49 /  80  80  40  40  30
SHAMROCK TX                51  59  49  63  48 /  80  90  40  40  30
WELLINGTON TX              52  59  49  65  49 /  80  90  50  40  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

08/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-111100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
400 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE STRENGTH...
RESULTING IN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO PENNY
SIZE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REQUIRE
BOATERS TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

NUNEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
454 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

TXZ017-018-110000-
ARMSTRONG TX-RANDALL TX-
454 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ARMSTRONG AND RANDALL COUNTIES...

AT 454 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 17 MILES SOUTH OF CANYON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. CANYON...PALO DURO CANYON...WAYSIDE...CETA CANYON...CLAUDE
AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF AMARILLO WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

LG