Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, March 1, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
419 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...

RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE THIS AM...WHAT W/UPDATES AND
SUCH...AND THINGS COULD GET SOMEWHAT BUSY SHORTLY...SO WE/LL KEEP IT
BRIEF.  LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A SHARPENED DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM KDRT NE TO NE OK...MOVING SE AT AROUND 30KTS.  AREA
RADARS AND LSRS INDICATE SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR
SEVERAL HRS ACROSS CENTRAL//EASTERN OK...W/CONVECTION STARTING TO
FILL ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.  AT THIS SPEED...DRYLINE
WILL BE INTO THE NW ZONES BY 12Z...WHICH IS PRETTY CONSISTENT W/THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.  THREATS FROM CELLS IN OK HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LARGE HAIL...CONSISTENT W/WHAT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING.  LATEST KSHV FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 12Z MAINTAIN THIS
THREAT...W/WET-BULB ZEROES AROUND 9KFT AND IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM 70KT
BULK SHEARS.  0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS...AND W/SREHS
OF 250+ M2/S2...CAN/T RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER.  WE/LL MAINTAIN
CHANCE SEVERE POPS...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES.  DRYLINE WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...AND BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY 18Z.  WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR OK AND TEXAS...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR AR
AND LA.

FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS TREND COLDER...AS IS GUIDANCE...AND HAVE
KEPT THINGS DRY IN NW FLOW ALOFT.  WE MIGHT HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW...BUT MODELS ARE OTHERWISE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK/N CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE THIS WAY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SO WILL LEAVE TSRA OUT OF MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
ELD/MLU SITES AS BETTER MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS
SUCH THAT TSRA IS THE MOST PROBABLE. 15-30K CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WITH AN OCCASIONAL IFR CEILING
THROWN INTO THE MIX. BOUNDARY WILL SCOUR OUT LOW CEILINGS AREAWIDE
THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 35KTS ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/
SW AR/NW LA. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  41  71  38 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  76  42  71  39 /  50   0   0   0
DEQ  68  32  65  29 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  71  38  68  38 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  69  36  70  36 /  40   0   0   0
TYR  69  39  68  38 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  74  38  69  38 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  77  41  74  41 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE
     RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER...AND UNION AR.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HOWARD...LITTLE RIVER...AND SEVIER.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE
     SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA
     SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED
     RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER...AND WINN.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AND MCCURTAIN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MCCURTAIN.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...RED
     RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN
     AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...AND WOOD.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...RED
     RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN
     AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...AND WOOD.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-011800-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
600 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A DRYLINE THROUGH THE FOUR
STATE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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