Hail in Texas, June 4, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
745 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS STORMS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO.  THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE BRIEFLY
SEVERE AT TIMES BUT ARE HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AS
THEY MOVE DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE WESTERN VALLEY.  00Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
CAPE OVER THE WESTERN VALLEY STILL IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG WITH A CIN
AROUND -40 J/KG.  CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FURTHER EAST.
ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING IS CAUSING THERMODYNAMICS TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM
REACHING THE WESTERN VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OUT WEST.  BESIDES TWEAKING POP GRIDS FOR THE
NEXT 18 HOURS...HAVE ALSO MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO SEVERAL VARIABLES
IN THE 2 TO 3 DAY RANGE TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODELS AND TO IMPROVE
CONSISTENCY WITH CRP.  NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...GENERAL SE FLOW AT 10 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FOOTERS
OFFSHORE...AS LITTLE PGF OVR REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
DEEPENS OVR EXTREME NW OK WED PM...INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST GULF THEN AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASED
WINDS WILL INCREASE SEAS OFFSHORE TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE TSTM MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE WRN VLY. THIS WILL CAUSE BRIEF
LOWER CIGS AND SHIFTING WINDS. GENERALLY...VFR THRU WED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS....68/KL
MARINE/AVIATION...58/JP
HMT/MESOSCALE.....ABBOTT

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
500 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

TXZ248>257-051100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
500 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS. AND...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. NO
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CREATE
MORE DIFFICULT CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE WORKING OUTSIDE TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...WEAR LOOSE FITTING LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING...AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AND...A MODERATE TO HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS AND SEAS. NO
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN BROWNSVILLE.

TOMASELLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
848 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

TXZ248-050245-
ZAPATA TX-
848 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF SAN YGNACIO...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FORMING JUST SOUTH OF SAN
YGNACIO...IN ADJACENT MEXICO. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

PHILO