Flash Flooding and Flood in Texas, June 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
124 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A SOUTHEAST/NORTHWEST BAND FROM
BROWNWOOD TO FORT WORTH TO SHERMAN NORTH NORTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA.
HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AND ADD THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007/

UPDATE...CLOSE ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 200MB WIND
FIELDS INDICATE TWO DISTINCT HIGH LEVEL UPPER LOWS. THE FIRST IS
OUT OVER WEST TEXAS BETWEEN EL PASO AND MIDLAND...AND THE SECOND
IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF TEXAS DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE WEST
TEXAS UPPER LOW...AND A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPED ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE GULF LOW...WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MOST OF TODAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE IF AND
WHERE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THE SHORT TERM TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OF THE HIGH LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE 40 POPS GOING MAINLY
ALONG I35 AND AREAS WEST. 00Z SOUNDING IS STILL MOIST...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITIES. ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERING AND
APPROACHING THE METROPLEX NOW...SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 500MB LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...BUT
200MB LOW WILL LINGER OVER WEST TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...STILL THINK THE WESTERN AREAS ARE
FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SEABREEZE ACTIVITY CAN PUSH NORTH.
WILL LEAVE 30 POPS IN AREAWIDE FOR TOMORROW AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ANALYZE A LITTLE FURTHER.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH....WILL LET IT EXPIRE AT 10 PM BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. GROUNDS REMAIN VERY WET THOUGH...SO MORE
ACTIVITY THAN EXPECTED WILL PROMPT A REISSUANCE.

91/DUNN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007/

WILL KEEP VCTS/CB MENTION THRU 02Z/8 PM CDT CARRIED OVER PER
CURRENT RADAR/SATL TRENDS. INTERPOLATION BRINGS NEXT BATCH OF
SHRA/TSRA NEAR GRANBURY/GLEN ROSE INTO D/FW TAF SITES BTWN 00Z-
01Z...SO WILL CONT A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDS...THO DONT XPCT
THIS BATCH TO BE QUITE AS HEAVY DUE TO IT BEING POSSIBLY OUTFLO-
DOMINATED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE METRO. AFTRWDS...MODELS PER
USUAL ARE OF NO HELP. WILL KEEP A VCSH DURING THE OVRNGT...WITH
BRIEF/OCNL MVFR CIGS FROM 11-15Z TROPICAL MSTR STILL AROUND. VFR
CONDS BY 16Z-18Z SAT/AFTR. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY SAT
AFTN...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SHRA/TSRA/CB AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007/

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR SCOPE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE PESKY UPPER LOW HAS MOVED NORTH INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY WHERE IT WILL MEANDER ABOUT THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF UPPER FORCING...EXPECT JUST
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE
UP TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP THE
HIGHEST TOTALS UNDER 2-3 INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
RESPOND TO INCREASED SUNSHINE AND THE MAV MOS OUTPUT APPEARS
REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DROP BACK SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL SHOW
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS FEATURE
INTERACTS WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER NORTH
TEXAS. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING MAY INCREASE AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD JOURNEY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS STILL LOW AND
MOISTURE CONTENT STILL HIGH...ISOLATED WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TRYING TO HINT AT A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTH TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK. DOUBT THIS WILL MAKE IT THROUGH...BUT
IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  91  73  89  73 /  30  50  30  50  30
WACO, TX              73  90  74  90  73 /  30  50  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  90  71  87  71 /  30  50  30  50  30
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  88  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  71  89  72 /  30  50  30  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  91  74  88  74 /  30  50  30  50  30
TERRELL, TX           72  90  73  87  73 /  30  50  30  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  90  73  88  73 /  30  50  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            72  90  73  89  73 /  30  50  40  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

75/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1046 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1046 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AND AREAS WEST...WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

84/92/91