Hail in Texas, December 19, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
809 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT AS OF 02Z HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY...ALONG THE AR/LA
BORDER SNAKING WESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS.
FRONT HAS BEEN IN THIS POSITION FOR THE LAST FOUR HOURS AND AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF CATEGORIES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE THINKING IS
THAT THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT BUT NOT
MUCH PER 00Z RUC. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT ELD
ALREADY.

CONCERNING CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET IS JUST NOW STARTING TO
CRANK OUT WEST OF THE REGION PER PALESTINE PROFILER SITE WITH
AROUND 30KTS AT 5K. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DESPITE MOST OF OUR CWA BEING SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY...FEEL
LIKE ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
A HAIL THREAT LATER TONIGHT. MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WILL TRY TO
COME NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN A WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS ALL
DEPENDS ON IF THE ACTIVITY CAN BECOME ROOTED BELOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OR NOT.

FOR NOW...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTHWEST ZONES FOR LATER TONIGHT AS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE TOO CLOSE TO THIS REGION TO SPLIT HAIRS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW WARM FRONT RUNNING RIGHT ALONG THE AR/LA
BORDER...W/VSBYS APPROACHING VLIFR NORTH OF THE FRONT.  00Z SHV/LCH
RAOBS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LRS...BUT OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...KSHV VAD PROFILER SHOWS LLJ BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...W/CONVECTION ALREADY FORMING WEST
OF KLFK.  THUS...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ALL SITES BY 06Z
OR SOONER.  AS TROUGH EXITS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCOURING TO
VFR BY 21Z ALL SITES EXCEPT KMLU/KELD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  71  43  71 /  70  40  10  10
MLU  58  71  45  70 /  70  60  10  10
DEQ  48  67  35  68 /  70  30  10  10
TXK  48  70  44  68 /  70  30  10  10
ELD  48  71  41  70 /  70  30  10  10
TYR  58  70  42  71 /  70  20  10  10
GGG  58  70  42  71 /  70  20  10  10
LFK  60  73  40  74 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

13/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-201200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE MAIN RISKS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HAIL GREATER THAN THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MILES AN HOUR. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR.

AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER EAST OR NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST
INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BY ON GOING THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST THURSDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION.  AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS AS IF THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS WILL BETTER
DEFINE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
536 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHREVEPORT              32.47N 93.80W
12/15/2007                   CADDO              LA   NEWSPAPER

            *** 1 INJ *** A TREE FELL DOWN ON LEXINGTON AVENUE NEAR
            EAST 63RD STREET...PARTIALLY CLIPPING AN AUTOMOBILE.
            POLICE AND FIRE CREWS WERE CALLED OUT TO REMOVE THE TREE
            FROM THE ROAD AND THE VEHICLE. A PASSENGER IN THE VEHICLE
            WAS TAKEN TO A LOCAL HOSPITAL FOR OBSERVATION. WINDS WERE
            ESTIMATED NEAR 40 MPH.

&&

13