Damaging Winds in Texas, August 29 to 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS OVER NORTH TEXAS.  WILL CARY SOME LOW POPS FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SE ZONES AS MASS OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST PROPAGATES NORTHWARD INTO
UNTAPPED INSTABILITY AXIS.  ALL OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET...WITH A QUIET AUGUST EVENING IN STORE.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT AS AN UNUSUALLY COOL
AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FILTERS SOUTHWARD.  FRONT WILL LOSE
SOME OF ITS DEFINITION AND PUSH AS IT ARRIVES IN THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 90S.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM(THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH KEEPS NORTH TEXAS
IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WONT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED AND PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY BEGIN
TO INCREASE AGAIN AS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.
07/BB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  94  75  94  73 /  20  40  30  20  20
WACO, TX              75  93  73  94  71 /  30  40  30  40  30
PARIS, TX             72  92  71  90  70 /  20  40  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            73  92  71  93  70 /  20  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  92  72  93  70 /  20  40  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            77  93  75  94  74 /  20  40  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           73  92  71  93  71 /  20  40  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         73  92  72  93  71 /  30  40  30  40  30
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  72  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

92/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
342 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS WITH
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT BY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE...ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 FRIDAY...THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE OLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...THOUGH STRONGER
STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2007

TXZ104-292100-
COLLIN TX-
303 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COLLIN COUNTY

AT 303 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF MCKINNEY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING AROUND THE COUNTY. ALL OF THESE
STORMS ARE NEARLY NEARLY STATIONARY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALLEN...ANNA...CELINA...
FAIRVIEW...FARMERSVILLE...FRISCO...LOWRY CROSSING...LUCAS...
MCKINNEY...MURPHY...PARKER...PLANO...PRINCETON...PROSPER AND WYLIE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3340 9638 3340 9683 3299 9683 3299 9629
      3335 9628 3334 9637

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2007

TXZ119-292145-
DALLAS TX-
345 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY

AT 345 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER IRVING...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FARMERS BRANCH AND IRVING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3294 9687 3294 9703 3274 9703 3276 9687

82/JLD