Hail in Texas, April 23, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

.UPDATE...
NEW FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUED TO INCORPORATE NEW TORNADO WATCH BOX
#166. ADDED SEVERE MENTION TO ZFP ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-27.

DRYLINE SITUATED ALONG I-27 AS OF 23Z WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE EAST OF THIS REGION. AS DAYLIGHT FADES...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A GRADUAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE DRYLINE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

INITIAL STORM OF INTEREST IS A SPLITTING SUPERCELL NEAR BIG SPRING
AS OF 2253Z. THIS STORM SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND MAY
AFFECT GARZA...KENT AND STONEWALL COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR IF
STORM ORGANIZATION HOLD TOGETHER. ELSEWHERE...CAP HOLDING JUST
ENOUGH TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT FOR
BRISCOE COUNTY. ONE SINGLE CELL DEVELOPED NEAR SILVERTON BUT WAS
UNABLE TO ORGANIZE. THIS COULD BE THE TREND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN
PLACE ATTM TO FUEL SEVERE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL UPDATE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.  KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  72  41  65  42 /  10  10  20  10   0
TULIA         53  74  42  64  44 /  50  10  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     53  76  41  66  44 /  30  10  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     52  77  43  69  45 /  20  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       56  79  43  68  46 /  30  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    54  80  45  71  47 /  20  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  82  51  67  46 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          58  84  48  70  47 /  40  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  86  50  72  48 /  40  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ033>044.

&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

TXZ021>044-241730-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1220 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HAPPY TO PLAINVIEW
TO CROSBYTON TO PADUCAH. THE DRY-LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRY-LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE WINDS AROUND 30
MPH AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN REGIONS WITH CURED FINE
FUELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.