Hail in Oregon, July 13, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
239 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS AN AREA FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN EAST
INTO WALLOWA COUNTY. THE STORMS ARE PUTTING OUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAIN AND HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PUT THE AREA OF EASTERN WASHINGTON UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WAVE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH A DECREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR AS UNSTABLE
AS TODAY AND WILL MOSTLY BE LOCATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN DAMPENED BY THE OVERALL CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY REACHING 90 DEGREES IN MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AT 2 PM. SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE OVER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND PORTIONS OF
THE FOOTHILLS...THUS WILL LET THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUE. TOMORROW
SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER AND MORE SUN...THUS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 100 DEGREES. THE KITTITAS VALLEY HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY NOT SEE ENOUGH HEATING TODAY TO REACH 100 DEGREES THOUGH WILL
REACH AROUND THE MID 90S WITH SOME CLEARING. THEREFORE...HAVE
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SUNDAY WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. DK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE AREA UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF SHORE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. BY TUESDAY THE NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE AND SHOVE
THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE AREA UNDER
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. ON TUESDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE THE AREA UNDER THE TROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 7 DEGREES. THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON. GP

&&

.PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2007/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE PREVALENT AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS AND ALONG ALL TWEB ROUTES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN CENTRAL OREGON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE 24 HOURS
WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. TIMING THE ACTIVITY AND LOCATIONS OF THE STORMS IS
DIFFICULT SO HAVE CARRIED VCTS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS FOR MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE EXCEPT AT KDLS WHICH
WILL SEE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. GP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RED FLAG WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ARE ON
TRACK. MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN OUR FORECAST AREA
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN WITH AMOUNTS A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS SO FAR.  NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
THE WAVE OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...BUT BELIEVE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. WILL
LIKELY LET THE WARNING EXPIRE FOR THE AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES AT 8 PM THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND COOLER MARINE AIR SPREADS THROUGH THE CASCADE
PASSES.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG WAVE LIKE
THE ONE OBSERVED TODAY.  SMITH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  99  65  94 /  30  20  20  10
ALW  71 101  70  95 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  69 103  67  97 /  30  20  20  10
YKM  68 101  65  94 /  30  20  20  10
HRI  67 102  67  96 /  30  20  20  10
ELN  66  96  65  91 /  30  20  20  10
RDM  57  94  56  90 /  30  20  20  10
LGD  64  98  64  93 /  30  20  20  10
GCD  63  97  58  95 /  30  20  20  10
DLS  69  93  67  89 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ631>635-638.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ609>611-630.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-501.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ631-633-675.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ609-681.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

TI:YGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
84/83/85

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1205 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2007

UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY

ORZ041-WAZ024-501-502-026>030-ORZ042>044-049-050-501>506-141215-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
1205 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

RED FLAG WARNING
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND
     SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND
     SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS WELL AS
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY TODAY. A LARGE PORTION OF THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
100 DEGREE OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PRODUCT ID PDXNPWPDT FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF THEM WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
LITTLE RAINFALL IF ANY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS PRODUCT
PDXRFWPDT FOR DETAILS.

IN ADDITION...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPOKANE HAS ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE UPPER PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THEIR PRODUCT...SEWRFWOTX.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED A PORTION OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND EAST WASHINGTON IN A SLIGHT
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RED FLAG WARNING SATURDAY
     EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS
     VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON,
     FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE
     MOUNTAINS, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND
     SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA
     COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN,
     OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY,
     NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER MOST AREAS OF THE FIRE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE COMMON OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS ON FRIDAY...THEY MAY STILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR SEVERAL ZONES ON SATURDAY...PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCT PDXRFWPDT FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE PRODUCT PDXNPWPDT
FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PENDLETON/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE H IN
CURRENTHAZARDS.