Wildfire in Oregon, August 3 to 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT FRI AUG 3 2007

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...REST OF TODAY...A PUSH OF MARINE AIR CROSSED THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN.  WINDS WILL BE STRONGER IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN
SOUTH OF THE HORSE HEAVEN HILLS WHERE WESTERLY MOMENTUM EXITS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY  HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THE OREGON PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN.  THESE CONDITIONS INCLUDE WIND WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
EXACERBATED BY MODERATE HAINES VALUES (THE HAINES INDEX IS A MEASURE
OF A DRY UNSTABLE AIR MASS).  A RED FLAG WARNING PRODUCT PDXRFWPDT
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  ALSO WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...SKY COVER
HAS BEEN REDUCED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SLIGHT RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM WALLOWA COUNTY...AS THE PUSH OF
MARINE AIR HAS CROSSED THE AREA RESULTING IN AN AIR MASS TOO STABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  MORNING NAM MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SITUATION SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE WALLOWA
AND ELKHORN MOUNTAIN REGION THIS MORNING...BUT MOVING IT EAST BY
AFTERNOON.  WITH THE COOLER MARINE AIR TODAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WILL JUST BARELY REACH ABOVE 90 FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 80

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND
ALONG ALL TWEB ROUTES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY SCT HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT...PERHAPS MIXED WITH A FEW MID LEVEL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS. KALW...KPDT AND KRDM MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
25 KTS AS WELL. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM PDT FRI AUG 3 2007/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MARINE PUSH HAS
BROUGHT COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE PUSH WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...SPREADING SOUTH OF THE
HORSE HEAVEN HILLS.

A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. AS
THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE CROSS
CASCADE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MARINE PUSH WILL STRENGTHEN...
INCREASING THE WINDS. COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. NAM
MODEL KEEPS SOME INSTABILITY LINGERING OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON
TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR EVEN OVER WALLOWA
COUNTY. DECIDED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON IF THE NAM IS CORRECT. NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE IS STILL SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THIS AREA ON SATELLITE AND AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER ONE OR
TWO. BY SATURDAY MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION.  COONFIELD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON.  THE
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO CANNOT GET TOO
EXCITED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE.  BREEZY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WA/OR WILL BE UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.  THERE WILL
BE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE
LITTLE EACH DAY...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  87  56  84  57 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  89  57  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  93  57  87  58 /  10   0  10  10
YKM  87  54  85  56 /  10   0  10  10
HRI  90  56  86  57 /  10   0  10  10
ELN  79  56  82  57 /  10  10  10  10
RDM  85  44  85  47 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  89  52  82  53 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  90  49  85  51 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  82  58  84  61 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ631.

WA...NONE.
&&

TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
80/83/83

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 AM PDT FRI AUG 3 2007

UPDATED FOR RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AND THIS EVENING

ORZ041-WAZ024-501-502-026>030-ORZ042>044-049-050-501>506-041215-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
915 AM PDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

RED FLAG WARNING
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

A PUSH OF MARINE AIR CROSSED THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT.  WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE
KITTITAS VALLEY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN.  WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH OF THE HORSE HEAVEN HILLS WHERE
WESTERLY MOMENTUM EXITS THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  THESE WINDS
COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THE OREGON PORTION OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND FOR NORTH CENTRAL OREGON.  THESE CONDITIONS
INCLUDE WIND WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXACERBATED BY MODERATE
HAINES VALUES (THE HAINES INDEX IS A MEASURE OF A DRY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS).  SEE PRODUCT PDXRFWPDT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN......SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE H IN
CURRENTHAZARDS.