Funnel Cloud in Oklahoma, May 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT WED MAY 20 207

ASCENT IS MUCH LESS PREVALENT OVER THE AREA TODAY THAN TUESDAY
WHEN THE UPPER LOW WAS CLOSER. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
NORTHWARD FROM BARTLESVILLE WITH DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY NEAR THE
UPPER LOW WHILE ROTATING/DEVELOPING IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...THE BOUNDARY IS EXPERIENCING FRONTOLYSIS...SO NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...WHICH PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DESPITE FAVORABLE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUD BASES AND SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
STILL SUPPORT FUNNEL CLOUDS AND/OR BRIEF MAINLY WEAK TORNADOES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOWEVER.

BY TONIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND EVOLVES INTO A
FRONT AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

JAMES

-------------------------
352 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE DEVELOPING
CLOSE TO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH ROUGHLY EXTENDS FROM
RYAN NORTHWARD TO CHANDLER AND NEAR TULSA. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. SHORT TERM
MODELS SHIFT THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY SO
EXPECT SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW. SHOWERS ARE ALSO ROTATING BACK
SOUTHWEST AROUND UPPER LOW INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SO
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS PLACED THERE.

NEXT SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. STILL EXPECT COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST PART OF FA THIS EVENING
AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE STORMS FARTHER NORTH BUT BETTER
COVERAGE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
SO RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY DROP INTO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO WESTERN TROUGH FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SLIGHT CHANCES WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
STILL LOOK OK WITH INCREASING CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  60  76  61 /  50  60  50  20
HOBART OK         75  59  78  59 /  30  60  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  61  81  63 /  30  70  50  20
GAGE OK           73  57  77  57 /  50  50  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     70  59  74  60 /  70  50  50  20
DURANT OK         78  64  79  64 /  60  60  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1000 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WEAK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

LOCATION...
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CHANDLER...TO SHAWNEE...ADA...
AND TISHOMINGO.

TIMING...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS....
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TO
FORWARD SIGNIFICANT REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. DUE TO LOW
CLOUD BASES AND SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THESE STORMS MAY QUICKLY
INCORPORATE THE SHEAR...RESULTING IN FUNNEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF AND MAINLY WEAK TORNADOES...SIMILAR TO STORMS FROM TUESDAY.

STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...15 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS RESULTED IN NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR STILLWATER...TO NEAR CHANDLER...SHAWNEE...ADA...
ARDMORE...AND MARIETTA...WITH ANOTHER AREA ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...AND ARCHER CITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AS THE SECOND
UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY...AND
AREAWIDE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN...INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND A DRY LINE
SHARPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS...STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY MAIN-STEM RIVERS DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

JAMES