Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 21, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
741 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO PA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
WHILE TODAYS FRONT GETS HUNG UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE OHIO AND TN
VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIALLY CONCERNED WITH BATCH OF WEAKENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS DETROIT/WINDSOR FOR NORTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING. QUESTION
IS WILL IT MAKE IT THIS FAR. BEST THAT COULD BE DONE SO FAR WAS TO
PUT IN CHC POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO/PA. THEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT GETS NEARER A FEW SHRA/TS POSSIBLE.
WILL BE HOPEFUL WITH PLACING THE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S. CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CONSIST OF MID/HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY THIS AFTERNOON CU WITH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM. THIS AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL
FACTOR INTO HIGHS. SUMMER WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN AT 206 PM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AND TURN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE OHIO AND
TN VALLEYS. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS ALREADY GETTING
PINNED DOWN AND SHOULD STAY IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN
MN/NORTHERN IA. THE EASTERN EXTENT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FURTHER AWAY THIS FRONT GETS THE
BETTER IT LOOKS FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR FRI/SAT. THE NAM ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE FRONT THE CLOSEST AND THEREFORE HAVE 20/30 POPS FOR
WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FRI/SAT AS A COUPLE TS COMPLEXES
EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT. THE GFS BRINGS THE CANADIAN
HIGH RIGHT SOUTH OVER THE AREA KEEPING IT COOL AND DRY. IN FACT
SAT AND SUN MORNINGS COULD BE A BIT COOL. THE COOL MOS LOCATION
YNG IS COMING IN WITH 43 FROM THE MAV. DID PULL THESE LOWS DOWN
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO AT THE COOLEST THE UPPER 40S.
GUIDANCE IN MANY SPOTS WAS UPWARDS OF 13 DEGREES DIFFERENT
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EAST...IT COULD GET A LITTLE COOL...BUT LEFT
SOME ROOM SINCE SKY COVER FORECAST TRICKY. THE GFS IS SO QUICK IN
MOVING TODAYS FRONT THROUGH AND THE HIGH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...IT IS READY TO TAKE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
BY SUNDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW LEFT IT DRY. WILL SEE HOW TODAY/TONIGHT
END UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN REMAINS VERY SUMMER LIKE.  LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST PATTERN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER
AROUND THE LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY HAS A VERY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.  THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THIS SOLUTION.  THE CURRENT MODELS PLACE A WARM FRONT JUST
NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY AND BRING A MUCH WEAKER
COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE CHANGING SOLUTIONS OF THE MODELS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED IS NOT HIGH.  THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
REGION AS WELL AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK WILL HAVE
IMPACT ON PCPN FORECAST.  I WILL NOT BE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PCPN AT
THIS TIME.  I WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z HPC GUIDANCE.  ISOLATED AFTN TSTMS COULD
OCCUR ON BOTH MON AND TUES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT.  WITH THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY I WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF PCPN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS/TSTORMS MOVG SE FROM LOWER MI ASSOCD WITH SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET. ONCE WIND BACKS MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST THEN DIVERGENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR NEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS AND AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD
CENTRAL OHIO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BUT WILL
MENTION SHOWER VICINITY AT TOL AND CLE THIS MORN AND WILL MENTION
THUNDER VICINITY AT FDY MFD CAK AND YNG THIS AFTRN. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTRN SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE AFTRN AND VFR CONDITIONS...PERHAPS SOME LEFTOVER MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TNGT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND E CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NEW CONVECTION NEARBY OR A TSTORM COMPLEX FROM
THE WEST...SPECIFICALLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES. RIDGE
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT SURFACE AND ALOFT BY MONDAY AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED ERLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME DAYBREAK HAZE AND FOG
POSSIBLE EACH MORN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT AND INCREASING WNW FLOW SHOULD BRING WINDS AND WAVES UP
THIS MORNING. NW FLOW GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT I THINK THAT IN GENERAL
THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTRN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME. MODELS STILL HINTING THAT ANOTHER
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES EARLY SUNDAY AND
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO MAKE SURE NORTHEAST FLOW DOES NOT BECOME
ENHANCED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. RIDGE
ALOFT AND AT SURFACE BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIGHT RETURN SOUTH
FLOW WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
558 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-221100-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
558 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OUDEMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

PAZ003-211745-
CRAWFORD PA-
121 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL NEAR MEADVILLE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  GUSTY WINDS
LESS THAN 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE COCHRANTON... AND GUYS
MILLS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE...TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

ASTIFAN