Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, July 27, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
923 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST OF
LAKE ERIE BY LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EVEN AFTER SUNSET AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SO WILL BUMP UP PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD EARLY MORNING. REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP IN MOIST AMS AS SOME OF THE CLD
COVER DISSIPATES BUT SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE SO PROB WL ONLY NEED A SEVERE WARNING OR
TWO AT MOST. LIKEWISE COULD BE A FEW REMOTE AREAS OF POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE SLOW MOVING STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE AS AMS REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESS. UPR TROF
KICKING EASTWARD WILL DIMINISH PRECIP THREAT IN THE WEST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN CHANGES THE
ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES APPEAR NEEDED TO GRIDDED DATA FIELDS. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSTABLE DUE TO ADDED MOISTURE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO SEVERE
RISK A BIT HIGHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  THE REAL
DECIDING FACTOR FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER LATER FRI WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE BEST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS TO INCREASE SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL COULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LINGERING MOISTURE FOR
A FEW SHRA OR TSRA SUN IN THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SO WL
CONT WITH PRECIP CHANCE THERE.  HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS AREA MON THROUGH WED SO EXPECT DRY WX DURING THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BE MOVING SE TO NEAR LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE
THU SO WL BRING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS BACK WELL
INTO THE 80S OR NEAR 90 BY WED OR THU.  MEX GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO
QUICK WITH THE WARMUP ON MON SO WL BACK OFF GUIDANCE HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS LAKE HURON. BY FRIDAY 18Z THE LOW WILL BE AN
OPEN WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MN AND WI WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
NAM80 SHOWS UP VV MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO BE SIMILAR TO PRVS NIGHT IN THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME WEAKER
AND MORE SPARSE AND VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA IN MIST/FOG. WILL BRING CONDS TO VFR AFTER 15-16Z OR SO
AS VISIBILITIES IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING. FOR LATE MORNING AND
THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP
HOWEVER WILL COVER WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME.

THREAT FOR SCT SHRA AND TSRA WL CONTINUE ON SAT AS UPR LOW HANGS
NEAR THE AREA THEN MIDWEST CDFNT MOVS SE THRU THE AREA SAT EVE.
SOME AREAS OF MVFR FOG PROB WL OCCUR AT SEVERAL TAF SITES FRI DAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR MANLY VFR CONDS SUNDAY THRU
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MUCH OF THE SAME FOR THE MARINE FORECAST TODAY.  UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OFF THE EAST
COAST.  UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FROPA SATURDAY WITH BRIEF
PEAK IN THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL THINK 5-15KT OR 10-20KT
SHOULD HOLD FOR THE FROPA.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...ADAMS/MRD
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
444 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-270845-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
444 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD HAVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1234 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             FINDLAY                 41.04N 83.64W
07/27/2007  E1.50 INCH       HANCOCK            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED 15 MINUTES.

&&

KIELTYKA