Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BUILDS OVER
THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUN...BUT
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO
EXPAND OVER MTNS AND INTO PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVE. HAVE STAYED
WITH CHANCE POPS MTNS AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF WITH COOLING THIS EVE. LITTLE CHANGE
FROM RECENT NIGHTS WITH MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S...MID 50S TO LOW 60S
MTNS.

GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY...AND THE WAVE TRACKING
ALONG IT...S OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT. FCST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL INVERSION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAP CONVECTION OVER MTNS.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN-EVE POPS OVER MTNS WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE...
AFTN HEATING AND CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
BUILDING AND INCREASING THICKNESS OVER AREA. TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPPER 70S AND 80S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BECOME A MORE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SUN AND MON. COVERAGE WITHIN THE CWA WILL REMAIN QUITE
LOW ON SUNDAY DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND H6...LIKELY LIMITING
CAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG. SREF/MOS POPS SUPPORT ONLY RIDGE TOP CHCS
WITH LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARM LLVL
THICKNESSES AND FAIR INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN SUN MAX TEMPS 3-7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY NW...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO AN MCS PASSING OVER NRN NC/VIRGINA SUN EVENING...NORTH OF
THE CWA.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONDAY. REMNANT NOCTURNAL
DEBRIS CLOUDS...WARM LLVL THICKNESS...AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUN. USING A BLEND
OF MAINLY GMOS AND MEX...I EXPECT TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE MID
90S EAST AND AROUND 90 IN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE TRIPLE DIGIT RECORD
HIGHS FOR KGSP AND KCLT FOR THE 6TH OF AUGUST WILL NOT BE THREATENED.
HOWEVER...THE RECORD AT KAVL IS 92 SET BACK IN 2002...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS 90. DWPTS SHOULD MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES WITHIN A 3 DEGREE SPREAD FROM THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THE MTNS THAN ON SUNDAY. A WEAKER INVERSION...QUICKER STORM
MOTIONS...AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES. ISO CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL COUNTIES...WITH LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE
FURTHER EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM TUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A FEW S/W TROFS MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FA. ONLY SURFACE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FEATURED BY THE 06Z GFS THAT REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WASHES OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...HOT
AND DRY FORECAST APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE
A BIT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
ARE FEATURED MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION THRU
THIS EVE. STILL LOOKING FOR LOW CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS MTNS...SLIGHT
CHANCE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. INCLUDED VCSH AND CB CLOUDS AT
KAVL. LGT AND VRBL WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO FROM THE SE AT 4-6 KTS
THIS AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF AGAIN THIS EVE. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
FOG/HAZE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH IFR VIS/CIG
AT KAVL...BURNING OFF A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG AND ISOLD AFTN-EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS...MAINLY MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED BUT LATEST FCST TRENDS KEEP MOST MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM S AND E OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ036-057-069>072-082.
     AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-502-504.
SC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-501-
503-505>510-SCZ001>014-019-040815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
413 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-502-504-040815-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
413 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

NCZ063-032045-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE THORPE...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SYLVA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  THORPE...WOLF MOUNTAIN...SAPPHIRE AND CASHIERS.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
421 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

NCZ062-032100-
MACON-
421 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MACON COUNTY THROUGH 500
PM EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OTTO AND
  FRANKLIN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.