Hail in New York, August 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
322 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES ONLY.

A WELL DEFINED LAKE BREEZE OFF LK ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT BAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THIS BREEZE
WEAKENS WITH THE SETTING SUN...THE FRONT (IN TYPICAL FASHION) WILL
JUMP TO THE FINGER LAKES THEN WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT PROTECTIVE LAKE BREEZE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...KEEPING THE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY EAST OF OUR REGION.

WHILE THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE IS KEEPING A LID ON STRONG CONVECTION...
THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SBCAPES AT 18Z GENERALLY RANGED FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH
POCKETS OF 2500 J/KG FOUND ACROSS PARTS OF THE IAG FRONTIER...
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT REMAIN WEAK AT THIS TIME.

THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
REGIONWIDE FOR THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BRING LIMITED TO SITES
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED DOWNPOUR. THE HIGH FREEZING LEVEL
(>13.5K FT) WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
ANY CONVECTION...AND WILL ALSO HELP TO USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE SUNSHINE...COOLER AIR AND LOWER
HUMIDITY SHOULD MAKE SATURDAY A VERY NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. DEW POINTS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER...WITH
MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS WILL
BE SOME 10 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE OF THE PAST THREE AFTERNOONS.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. NO DOUBT...THIS PARTICULAR NIGHT WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE PAST SEVERAL...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
PLEASANT NIGHT FOR SLEEPING OF THE NEXT WEEK. CLEAR SKIES...LOW
DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE
50S. IN SOME AREAS (IE. NORTH COUNTRY AND SRN TIER)...MINS WILL E
IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STREAM NAM/WRF AND GFS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS ON
SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE WILL TAKE AIM ON THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH...THE NAM/WRF BRINGS THE WAVE DUE EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING TYPE PCPN DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE MORE RELIABLE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS IN PLAY TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY -SHRA/TSRA.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WARMER MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION ON A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB BACK UP THROUGH THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS A RESULT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO PROVINCE DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD...WITH SOME SCT
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER OUR REGION AS A RESULT OF THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE OPPORTUNUITY FOR SOME BENEFICIAL -SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE QUITE STEAMY...AS TEMPS WILL AVG
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY DEALING WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MEANDERING OVER OR
SOUTH OF NY THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MREF
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD...WHICH ONLY INCREASES AFTER TUESDAY. HENCE
IN TIMING OF ANY PASSING SHOWER AND THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW. MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER
DROPS OFF AFTER THURSDAY AFTER THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN HINTS AT
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE PASSING BY. SO...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP
THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS THIS AGREES WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
HPC...BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS SHOWING UP IN THE
FORECAST DOWN THE ROAD. INTERESTINGLY...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FOR THE
OVERALL GENERAL FORECAST DETAILS OF THE ENTIRE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT...ASIDE FROM AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT...THERE
IS LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY A THIN STRIP OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF WHICH WAS APPROACHING THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AT 18Z.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTY...AND
EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SAGS PAST. THIS PUTS THE HIGHEST THREAT OVER KIAG AND KROC FOR THE
AFTERNOON...TO ABOUT 20Z AND 22Z RESPECTIVELY. THE THREAT THEN
INCREASES OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AREAS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
SEE BRIEF 1/2 HR LONG MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED PARTICULARLY WEST OF KROC. THOSE AREAS NOT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE COLD FRONT OR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT A CLEAR AND CALM
NIGHT...WITH FINE FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NY BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS AND WAVES DURING AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.  A QUIET WEEKEND IS IN
STORE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY OVER LAKE ERIE.  AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.  WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-041030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1107 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AWAITS THIS COOL FRONT...
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED ONE HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH AND A HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-041030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1107 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH