Hail in Nebraska, May 19, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SFC BOUNDARY FRONT NEAR
BASSETT TO NORTH OF THEDFORD TO SOUTHEAST OF ALLIANCE IS CURRENTLY
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. NAM INDICATES SLOW MOVEMENT TO SOUTHEAST
INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHER SCATTERED STORM FIRING OFF FRONT RANGE
WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT SOON EXPECTED IN TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BEST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IN BROWN AND ROCK COUNTY AT 2115Z WITH
CONGESTING CU FIELDS TRAILING TO THE WEST. 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK AT
15-20 KTS...THUS BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...PEA HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED SEVERE STILL A CONCERN FOR ROTATING
STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY INTO EARLY EVENING.

SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUNDAY THEN BY MONDAY...CYCLOGENESIS
IN ERN CO WILL DEVELOP FRONT ACROSS FORECAST AREA. BEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS FCST PKG LEANED TOWARD FASTER NAM/SREF
SOLUTION REGARDING POPS/WINDS TEMPS INTO TUESDAY. GFS LOOKS TOO
SLOW...EVEN IN COMPARISON TO 12Z ECMWF.

BEST SEVERE THREAT TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS 0-6KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS JUST NW OF SFC FRONT. THUS INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS MUCH
OF NCTRL.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO AS THUNDERSTORM BASES SHOULD REMAIN AOA 5KFT AGL. HOWEVER AS PAST
FEW NIGHTS...WIND GUSTS NEAR THESE STORMS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 50KT
AS THEY COLLAPSE OR PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN TURN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST...BOTH HAZARDOUS TO LIGHT AIRCRAFT.
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ALSO PROHIBIT THE LLWS SEEN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LBF TWEB
ROUTES AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

KAR/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-201200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
337 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007 /237 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER THE
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ALLIANCE TO
AINSWORTH TO BUTTE LINE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE DAILY AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS COOLER MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CDC/13