Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall sent the Black and St. Francis Rivers out of their banks.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall sent the Black and St. Francis Rivers out of their banks.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 2:40 PM CST, 10 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 340 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2007 .DISCUSSION... RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SE MO...PROMPTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE ISSUED. LOCAL REPORTS OF 3.2 INCHES IN ELLSINORE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MORE ON THE WAY. NUMEROUS REPORTS TODAY OF CREEKS AND DITCHES NEAR BANKFULL WEST OF A DEXTER TO MARBLE HILL LINE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THERE WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IF THE SOIL BECAME SATURATED BEFORE THE UPPER LOW BRINGS ANOTHER LIKELY ROUND OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND/OR FRI. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC BOUNDARY NOW DRAPED ACROSS SE MO AND THE WESTERN TIP OF KY WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW NOW EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR OVER SRN OK WILL LIFT SLOWLY NE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRI. RICH...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW. CURRENT PWS RUNNING AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAIN RATES GREATER THAN AN INCH AN HOUR. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD PROCLUDE SEVERE RISK TONIGHT AND FRI. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH FRI EVENING...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR SAT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH H50 LOW IS EAST OF THE REGION...MID LVL FORCING SEEMS TO BE LACKING HERE...SO SVR CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW BUT NOT NIL. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THE PESKY SFC BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. EAST NORTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 MOST AREAS. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z FRIDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF A DEXTER TO MARBLE HILL LINE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && MEFFERT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 938 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-087-111- 112-114-041000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI- NEW MADRID- 938 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR LOW LANDS PRONE TO FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. THERE IS SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER WABASH. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MINOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER WABASH IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY PRECIPITATION REPORTS...INCLUDING ANY FLOODING REPORTS. MOZ086-100-107>110-041000- BOLLINGER-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD- 938 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY PRECIPITATION REPORTS...INCLUDING ANY FLOODING REPORTS.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of the St. Francis River occurred. At Patterson, where flood stage is 16 feet, the river crested at 18.31 feet around mid-morning on May 4. Some low-lying fields and woodlands near the river were flooded. Rainfall at Patterson was unofficially measured at 4 inches.
Minor flooding of the Black River occurred. At Poplar Bluff, where flood stage is 16 feet, the river crested at 17.29 feet before sunrise on May 5. Floodwaters flowed across Clinton Park, washing out a park road. The river flooded a second park and some cropland. A road in southern Poplar Bluff was flooded. Sixteen flood gates were closed. The river rose about one foot each hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 26156, 26157.