Tornado and Hail in Missouri, May 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MO...PROMPTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE ISSUED. LOCAL REPORTS OF
3.2 INCHES IN ELLSINORE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MORE ON THE WAY.
NUMEROUS REPORTS TODAY OF CREEKS AND DITCHES NEAR BANKFULL WEST OF A
DEXTER TO MARBLE HILL LINE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THERE WOULD BE
A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IF THE SOIL BECAME SATURATED BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS ANOTHER LIKELY ROUND OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND/OR FRI.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC BOUNDARY NOW DRAPED ACROSS SE MO
AND THE WESTERN TIP OF KY WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW NOW EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
OVER SRN OK WILL LIFT SLOWLY NE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
AND FRI. RICH...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW. CURRENT PWS RUNNING
AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THEREFORE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE
OF RAIN RATES GREATER THAN AN INCH AN HOUR. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR SHOULD PROCLUDE SEVERE RISK TONIGHT AND FRI.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH FRI EVENING...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN ACTIVITY FOR SAT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TRY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEFTOVER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH H50 LOW IS EAST OF THE REGION...MID LVL FORCING SEEMS
TO BE LACKING HERE...SO SVR CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW BUT NOT NIL.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD
FINALLY PUSH THE PESKY SFC BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. EAST
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 MOST
AREAS. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z FRIDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF A
DEXTER TO MARBLE HILL LINE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

MEFFERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
309 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM DEXTER TO MARBLE HILL. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM DEXTER TO MARBLE
HILL. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PS