An isolated thunderstorm produced flash flooding near Mayesburg.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
An isolated thunderstorm produced flash flooding near Mayesburg.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 2, 5:41 AM CST, 5 hours 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 641 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007 ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY SPINNING ITS WAY NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW HAS BEEN SPIT EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE BASE OF A TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CLOSER TO HOME...THE PROFILER NETWORK INDICATE THAT A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS AXIS IS REFLECTED IN AN INVERTED TROUGH MIRRORED AT THE SURFACE...AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE RAIN MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI BEFORE TAKING A HARD LEFT IN CENTRAL MO AND HEADING WEST TOWARDS KANSAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FROM THE GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT IN THE GENERAL SOLUTION OFFERED FOR THE CUTOFF LOW. CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CREEPS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST H8. THIS IS IN PART A RESPONSE TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SHOOT EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THE OPEN SHORTWAVE IN EAST KANSAS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONTINUE NORTH AS THE PROGRESSIVE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOWS CIRCULATION HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...DEW POINT VALUES HAVE DROPPED RADICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDERCUTS THE WARM MOIST AIR UNDER THE CUTOFF LOW. HAVE LOWERED AND ELIMINATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO SHIFT BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MOISTURE SURGES BACK TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR AXIS WILL ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH...THEREFORE I HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL...CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO BUMPED UP OUR POPS A BIT GOING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE MEANDERS NORTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE AVOIDED STRAYING TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE COOL AIR AND MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GENERAL LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY...ADD WEAK WIND SHEAR AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ON THE UP SIDE...THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR WIDE SPREAD FLOODING. STILL...THE HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 36 FROM ST JOSEPH TO MACON TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWO/ AND HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESF/. CUTTER && .AVIATION... CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS TODAY. 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KMCI. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY AS EASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-12 KNOTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. TO THE NORTH...ST JOSEPH SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF TODAY WITH BROKEN CEILINGS MAINLY WELL INTO THE VFR RANGE. AT KMCI...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR RECENTLY WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL...HOWEVER A RECENT SHARP DEWPOINT DROP AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT CEILINGS MAY JUMP BACK TO VFR SHORTLY...BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT LITTLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNTOWN KC AIRPORT HAS SEEN A STEADY LOWERING IN CEILINGS WITH STEADILY PRECIPITATION ALL MORNING. PLACEMENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FLUCTUATE WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THIS MAY BECOME PREDOMINANT LATER ON. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS. BOOKBINDER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 559 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-031100- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER- PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR- BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY- RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD- CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 559 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD THE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS. CUTTER
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:31 UTC.
2 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was flowing over State Highway BB...County Road 15005...and County Road 13003 near the town of Mayesburg.
The South Grand River near Urich crested at 26.85 feet, or 2.85 feet above flood stage.
The Big Creek at Blairstown crested at 20.30 feet, or 0.30 feet above flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 33029, 69303, 69304.