Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 7, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. GRADIENT WINDS ARE RUNNING
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AT OR CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH 7 PM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY
TIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
ENOUGH DECREASE IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER SO THAT WINDS WILL BE BELOW
CRITERIA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER CURRENTLY SCHEDULED ENDING TIME.

TIMING OF THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.
THERE WAS ONE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
MORNING OVR CNTRL MO...BUT IT SOON DIED OUT AS IT MOVED INTO MORE
STABLE AIR. 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +12 AND +13 SEEN ON THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY WARM WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE LIFT CAUSED BY THE TROUGH
WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THIS WARM LAYER ALLOWING FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NWRN AND NRN COUNTIES AFT 21Z.
BEST CHANCE OF TSRA/SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON FORCING AND
INSTABILITY IS OVER CNTRL AND NERN MO/W CNTRL IL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-44 IN MO/I-55 IN IL. SHEAR VS. FORCING SUGGEST THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE 45-65KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ACCOMPANYING
TORNADO THREAT (SEE LATEST SPC SWODY1). FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO LOWER INCREASING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN LOOKS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVES.

BRITT/CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL TSRA AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. TSRA SO FAR IN NWRN MO HAS STRUGGLED TO MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THE DRY LINE WHERE THE AIR IS MORE CAPPED AND SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE. BELIEVE CAP WILL WEAKEN OVER TIME THIS EVENING AND CDFNT
IS CLOSING THE GAP BETWEEN IT AND THE DRY LINE...WITH THE TWO
EVENTUALLY MERGING LATER TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY KICK
START SOME TSRA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FROPA. ONCE FROPA OCCURS...RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF FROPA. POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS IN KSTL/KSUS
DUE TO LATE NIGHT TIMING...BUT THIS WILL BE BRIEF...AND ONLY A FEW
CU CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...S-SW SFC
WNDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10-15KTS SUSTAINED
WITH FROPA AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. VEERING NWLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BETWEEN 10-15KTS.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
958 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
958 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1050 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             2 N LIBERTY             39.91N 91.11W
06/07/2007  E0.75 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1104 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QUINCY                  39.93N 91.39W
06/07/2007                   ADAMS              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAR BLOWN OFF THE ROAD NEAR EASTERN CITY LIMITS.

&&

TILLY