Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, August 24, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDING HEAT...SEVERE WEATHER AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

WILL NOT REISSUE ANY HEAT HEADLINES AS CURRENT FORECAST HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RESULT IN HEAT INDICES ONLY MAXING OUT
AROUND 100 DEGREES IN METRO ST. LOUIS.  OBSERVING SITE IN THE CITY
SHOWED THAT CRITERIA WAS MET OR FELL JUST SHORT OF 105F THE PAST
THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HINDERED BY CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM MCS OVER NRN MO AND KS AS WELL AS ANY TSRA
REDEVELOPING OVER NRN AND CNTRL MO LATER TODAY. CURRENT DEWPOINTS
OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA ARE IN THE MID 60S...AND GFS MOS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL AGAIN MIX OUT INTO THE
LWR-MID 60S IN THESE SPOTS. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
TODAYS HEAT IN THE HWO.

GFS AND NAM IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MASS FIELDS WHEN
REMOVING BIASES OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE
GFS AND SREF MEAN FOR THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CWA FROM 12Z THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY MOIST WITH PWATS FROM 2 TO
2.5 INCHES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSRA TO BE EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. THERE WILL BE DECENT SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE LIFT CAUSED BY THE FRONT INTERSECTING A 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY...AND SHIFTED THE LIKELY POPS SEWD TONIGHT. FFG VALUES ARE
QUITE HIGH...WITH MOST COUNTIES 3 HR VALUES ABOVE 3.5 INCHES...SO
DO NOT SEE THE NEED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT AND
WILL INSTEAD MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A
SEVERE THREAT TODAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT GIVEN FORECAST
MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY MIXED LAYER TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PRECIPTATION.

FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ENDING THE CHANCE OF
RAIN. USED A COMBINATION OF SREF MEAN AND GFS MOS FOR TEMPS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EASTERN IA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF MO INTO THE OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY 18Z
SATURDAY, THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXEND FROM SOUTHERN IL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO. LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
WEST CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL MO WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MO. ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST LAPS DATA
INDICATED BEST INSTABILITY AND CAPE WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.

TPS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-095>102-MOZ036-052-060>065-251200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-CALHOUN IL-
JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-PIKE-LINCOLN-WARREN-
ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-
1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

ILZ079-MOZ018-019-026-027-034-035-041-042-047>051-059-072>075-084-
085-099-251200-
RANDOLPH IL-KNOX-LEWIS-SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-BOONE-AUDRAIN-
MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-GASCONADE-CRAWFORD-
WASHINGTON-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BYRD