Thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall caused the St. Francis River to briefly rise above flood stage at Patterson.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall caused the St. Francis River to briefly rise above flood stage at Patterson.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 14, 2:05 PM CST, 4 hours 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 305 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007 .SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE POPS/CLEARING TREND OVER THROUGH SUNDAY. 19Z METARS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HOPKINSVILLE AND OWENSBORO KENTUCKY. IT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTHEAST...AND SHOULD QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD...DRY ADVECTION TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ON THE STRENGTH OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE RATHER HEAVY DRIZZLE THAT WAS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHED...HAS DISSIPATED OVER ALL BUT THE EVANSVILLE AREA. WOULD EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE IN THE AREA BY 00Z. THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN SHRINKING/DISSIPATING SINCE NOON...AND WILL LIKELY NOT POSE MUCH OF A RISK TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH STRUGGLE TO SQUEEZE ANY QPF OUT OVER THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT...AS SHARP/AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...MAINLY BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THIS EVENING...SOUNDINGS TRY TO SATURATE BELOW 700MB...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO EEK OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER PUSHING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS NEGLIBLE. WILL KEEP A 20 POP WEST AND 30 EAST FOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN JUST HAVE LINGERING 20 POPS IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN LAYER OF ZONES THROUGH 06Z. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MENTION A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND RAIN. THE 12Z GFS DIFFERS FROM THE NAM SUNDAY...IN BRINGING SOME ENERGY DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...AND INTO NORTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE UKMET SUPPORTS THE DRY NAM FORECAST...SO WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE GFS RUNS CLOSELY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST NOON...SO WILL TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS RIDGING PREVAILS AT ALL LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FAVORED THE COOLER MAV OR NAM12 TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED. WENT A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUNDAY. WENT WITH WARMER MAV SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND NEAR CONSENSUS ON MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM... /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX...ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE IMMEDIATE REGION MAY BREAK DOWN BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. HAD INITIALLY DECIDED TO BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH DRY BASED ON MODEL RUNS PRIOR TO 12Z. HOWEVER...A GLANCE AT THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO REVEAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WETTER TREND...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH ALSO BLENDS IN A COLLABORATIVE SENSE. STILL BELIEVE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH A LACK OF RETURN GULF MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S/...SHOULD KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. RIDGING AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LAST INTO LATE WEEK. AFTER A SHORT-LIVED MID-WEEK COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT... TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY LATE WEEK. THERE IS SOME HINT THE PATTERN MAY BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF THE REGION FOR NOW. UTILIZING A BLEND OF HPC AND MEX GUIDANCE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WORKED WELL COLLABORATIVELY AND REQUIRED ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && DRS/RP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 334 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-151000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 334 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG THE ST FRANCIS RIVER IN WAYNE COUNTY MISSOURI. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MINOR FLOODING WILL COME TO AN END ALONG THE ST FRANCIS RIVER IN WAYNE COUNTY MISSOURI SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATE4ST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME SCATTERED FROST MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. DRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of fields and woodlands occurred along the St. Francis River. At Patterson, the river crested about six inches above the flood stage of 16 feet around 1:30 A.M. on the 15th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, April 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 21271.