Flash Flood and Hail in Mississippi, May 10, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE EARLY SUMMER INVASION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS WE SEE YET ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN MOST LOCATIONS NEAR THE 90 DEGREE
MARK...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACTUALLY REACHING 90.  THE COOL SPOT PER
SAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS AGREE THAT THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY.  AN OLD WEAK BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IS
MEANDERING ABOUT GENERALLY FROM A LINE STRETCHING FROM NEAR NATCHEZ
TO JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON TO JUST NORTH OF MERIDIAN.  THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER AREAS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  AS
HEATING INCREASES OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE.  THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD HAMPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

OTHER THAN SOME HOURLY TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS AS A RESULT OF TRENDS AND
TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE SOME MORNING WORDING...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
205 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111905-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
205 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A NATCHEZ TO JACKSON TO DE KALB LINE.

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS AREA...AND
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. IN
ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL HELP TO PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY MAY 17TH .

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.